图表内容
图74：全球和中国大豆供需平衡表
单位
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2018/19E
2019/20
2021122E
2022/23E
期初库存百万吨
60.76
70.36
54.45
55.26
61.65
77.89
80.41
94.83
100.66
114.10
94.73
100.03
95.59
产量百万吨
263.90
239.57
268.77
282.61
319.60
313.77
349.31
342.09
361.04
339.89
368.52
355.61
391.17
进口百万吨
88.73
93.46
95.91
111.85
124.36
133.33
144.22
153.26
145.88
164.97
165.54
157.14
166.21
221.36
228.16
230.19
241.27
264.07
275.36
287.28
294.64
298.53
312.48
315.43
314.78
329.32
国内消费总计
百万吨
251.63
257.65
261.20
275.25
301.85
314.15
330.61
338.07
344.28
358.40
363.76
363.38
380.88
出口百万吨
91.66
92.16
100.53
112.70
126.22
147.50
153.07
148.83
165.06
164.99
153.82
169.38
期末库存百万吨
70.11
53.58
57.40
61.77
77.53
78.28
95.82
99.05
114.48
95.49
100.03
95.59
102.71
27.86%
20.80%
21.98%
22.44%
25.68%
24.92%
28.98%
29.30%
33.25%
26.64%
27.50%
2631%
26.97%
单位
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
20171182018/19E
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22E
2022/23E
期初库存百万吨
13.26
14.54
15.91
12.38
13.85
17.01
17.14
20.12
23.06
19.46
24.61
31.15
31.79
产量百万吨
15.10
14.49
13.05
11.95
12.15
11.79
15.28
15.97
18.10
19.60
16.40
18.40
进口百万吨
52.34
59.23
59.87
70.36
78.35
83.23
93.50
94.10
82.54
98.53
99.74
91.57
98.00
55.00
60.97
64.95
68.85
74.50
81.50
88.00
90.00
85.00
91.50
93.00
87.50
96.00
国内消费总计百万吨
65.95
72.07
76.18
80.60
87.20
95.00
103.50
106.30
102.00
109.20
112.74
107.22
116.59
出口百万吨
0.19
0.28
0.27
0.22
0.14
0.11
0.11
0.13
0.12
0.09
0.07
0.10
0.10
期末库存百万吨
14.56
15.91
12.38
13.88
17.01
16.91
20.66
23.06
19.46
26.80
31.15
31.79
31.50
库存消费比
22.08%
22.08%
16.25%
17.22%
19.51%
17.80%
19.96%
21.69%
19.08%
24.54%
27.63%
29.65%
27.02%
资料来源：USDA、1
山西证券研究所
