图表内容
图表6：市场预期9月联储降息概率至90%
CME FEDWATCH TOOL-CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES
MEETING DATE175-200200-225225-250250-275275-300
300-325
325-350350-375
375-400
400-425
2025/9/17
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
5.8%
94.2%
2025/10/29
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
4.7%
77.6%
17.7%
2025/12/10
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
4.5%
74.2%
20.5%
0.8%
2026/1/28
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.2%
38.4%
48.0%
10.9%
0.4%
2026/3/18
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.2%
21.4%
43.5%
28.4%
5.4%
0.2%
2026/4/29
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
7.0%
27.8%
39.1%
21.7%
3.9%
0.1%
2026/6/17
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
4.2%
19.1%
34.4%
29.0%
11.3%
1.7%
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
1.4%
8.5%
23.5%
32.8%
23.9%
8.5%
1.2%
0.0%
2026/9/16
0.0%
0.5%
4.0%
14.0%
26.9%
29.6%
18.3%
5.9%
0.8%
0.0%
2026/10/28
0.1%
1.1%
5.5%
16.0%
27.3%
27.8%
16.4%
5.1%
0.7%
0.0%
2026/12/9
0.2%
1.7%
7.0%
17.6%
27.4%
26.2%
14.8%
4.5%
0.6%
0.0%
CME.
太平洋证券整理
