图表内容
图112月FOMC会议SEP对经济数据的预测
Median'
Central Tendency
Range3
Variable
Longe灯
Longer
Longer
run
run
run
Change in real GDP
1.7
2.3
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.6-1.8
2.1-2.5
1.92.3
1.8-2.1
1.8-2.0
1.5-2.0
2.0-2.6
1.8-2.6
1.7-2.6
1.7-2.5
September projection
1.6
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.4-1.7
1.7-2.1
1.8-2.0
1.7-2.0
11.7-2.0
1.3-2.0
1.5-2.6
1.7-2.7
1.6-2.6
1.7-2.5
Unemployment rate
4.5
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.5-4.6
4.3-4.4
4.2-4.3
4.0-4.3
4.0-4.3
4.4-4.6
4.2-4.6
4.0-4.5
4.0-4.5
13.8-4.5
September projection
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.4-4.5
4.2-4.4
4.04.3
4.04.3
4.24.6
4.0-4.6
4.04.5
4.04.5
3.84.5
PCE inflation
2.9
2.4
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.8-2.9
2.32.5
2.0-2.2
2.0
2.0
2.7-2.9
2.2-2.7
2.02.3
2.0
2.0
September projection
3.0
2.6
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.9-3.0
2.4-2.7
2.0-2.2
2.0
2.0
2.5-3.2
2.2-2.8
2.0-2.4
2.0
2.0
3.0
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.9-3.0
2.4-2.6
2.0-2.2
2.0
2.7-3.1
2.22.7
2.0-2.5
2.0
September projection
3.1
2.6
2.1
2.0
3.0-3.2
2.5-2.7
2.0-2.2
2.0
2.7-3.4
2.2-2.9
2.0-2.4
2.0-2.2
Memo:Projected
appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
3.63.43.1
3.1
3.0
3.63.9
2.93.6
2.9-3.6
283.6·2.83.5
3.43.9
2.1-3.9
2.4-3.9
2.63.9·2.6-3.9
September projection
3.6
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.6-4.1
2.9-3.6
2.9-3.6
2.8-3.6
2.8-3.5
2.9-4.4
2.6-3.9
2.4-3.9
2.6-3.9
12.6-3.9
资料来源：FED
东海证券研究所
