图表内容
图3市场对2026年1月降息计价为22.1%，截至2025年12月11日
CME FEDWATCH TOOL-CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITES
MEETING DATE
175-200
200-225
225-250
250-275275-300
300-325
325-350
350-375
400-425
2026/1/28
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
22.1%
77.9%
0.0%
0.0%
2026/3/18
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7.8%
41.7%
50.6%
0.0%
0.0%
2026/4/29
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.2%
172%
44.2%
36.4%
0.0%
0.0%
2026/6/17
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.1%
9.5%
30.4%
40.4%
18.7%
0.0%
0.0%
2026/729
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
2.7%
13.5%
32.3%
36.2%
15.1%
0.0%
0.0%
2026/9/16
0.0%
0.1%
1.2%
6.9%
20.8%
33.8%
28.0%
9.2%
0.0%
0.0%
2026/10/28
0.0%
0.3%
2.4%
9.8%
23.6%
32.6%
24.0%
7.3%
0.0%
0.0%
2026/12/9
0.0%
0.5%
2.9%
10.8%
24.2%
32.0%
22.8%
6.7%
0.0%
0.0%
2027/1/27
0.0%
0.4%
2.7%
10.1%
23.0%
31.3%
23.7%
8.2%
0.6%
0.0%
2027/3/17
0.1%
0.7%
3.7%
11.8%
24.1%
30.3%
21.7%
7.2%
0.5%
0.0%
2027/4/28
0.1%
0.6%
3.2%
10.6%
22.2%
29.3%
22.9%
9.4%
1.5%
0.1%
202716/9
0.1%
0.6%
3.2%
10.6%
22.2%
29.3%
22.9%
9.4%
1.5%
0.1%
2027/7/28
0.1%
0.6%
3.2%
10.4%
22.0%
29.2%
23.1%
9.7%
1.7%
0.1%
2027/9/15
0.1%
0.6%
3.1%
10.4%
21.9%
29.1%
23.1%
9.8%
1.8%
0.1%
2027110/27
0.1%
0.6%
29%
9.7%
20.8%
28.5%
23.7%
11.0%
2.5%
0.3%
2027/12/8
0.1%
0.9%
3.9%
11.3%
22.0%
27.7%
21.8%
9.8%
2.2%
0.2%
资料来源：CME
东海证券研究所
