【行业研究报告】瑞声科技-3Q21 in-line; Remain cautious on 4Q21 recovery

AAC’s3Q21revenue/netprofitdeclined6.1%/58%YoY,in-linewithitsprofit
warningearlier(down51-61%YoY),mainlyduetoweakdemandofdomestic
smartphones,chipshortage,supplychaindisruption,andhigheroperatingcost
inChina.BlendedGPMof22.7%(-0.9pptYoY/-2.7pptQoQ)suggested
continuedmarginpressureduetolowerutilization,lackofupgradeandintense
competition.Whilemgmt.expectsopticsshipment/GPMtorecoverin4Q21E,
wethinksemishortage,COVID-19andsmartphonedemandweaknesswill
continuetodragsmartphonedemandin4Q21E,andplasticlensASPpressure
andHCMrampwilldiluteAAC’smarginintoFY22/23E.OurnewFY21-23E
EPSare19-25%belowconsensus.MaintainHoldwithnewSOTP-basedTP
HK$37.4implies18.5xFY22EP/E.
3Q21in-line;demandweaknessacrossallsegments.Bysegment,
acousticsgrew1.9%YoYonUSclient’speakseasonwhileMEMS/haptics&
acousticsgrew1.9%YoYonUSclient’speakseasonwhileMEMS/haptics&
casingswasdown31%/7.9%YoYgivenAndroidweaknessandcompetition.
Wearealsodisappointedbyweakopticsrevenue(-18%YoY),and3Qplastic
lensshipmentdeclineof50%YoYandweakopticsmarginof15%(vs22%in
2Q)suggestedintensifiedcompetitioninhandsetlensindustry.Lookingahead,
weremaincautiousthatplasticlenspricing,expansioninlower-marginHCM
andWLG’sinitialloweryieldwillcontinuetoimpactopticsGPMintoFY22-23E.
Expansionintoautomotivemarket:lensforLiDAR/camandaudiofor
smartcockpit.AACalsoannouncedtoaccelerateexpansioninto
automotivemarketbypromotingcomprehensivesolutionforsmartcars
acrossproductsincludingoptics,acoustics,hapticsandMEMsmicrophones.
Inparticular,mgmt.expectedtoofferautolensproductsforLiDARandvideo
cameraandaudiosolutionforsmartcockpit.AACalsoannouncedinOctto
investintoanext-genimagesensorcompany,SWIRVisionSystems,and
aimstoleverageitsWLGtechnologytoenhanceoverallcompetitiveness.
Headwindsonsemishortage,de-specandweakdemand;Maintain
HOLD.Wethink2H21Ewillremainaslowyearforsmartphonespec
upgradegivensemishortageandsluggishconsumerdemand.Wetrimmed
FY21-23EEPSby19-24%forlowerGPMandweakeropticsrevenue.Our
FY21-23EEPSremain19-25%belowconsensusformoreconservative
upgradeandmargininFY22/23E.OurnewSOTP-basedTPisHK$37.4,
implying18.5xFY22EP/E.Tradingat16.7xFY22EP/E,thestockisfairly
valuedinourview.