【行业研究报告】石药集团-Q3 slightly miss while long-term growth prospects remain intact

CSPCreported9M21salesandattributablenetprofitofRMB20.6bnand
RMB4.3bn,up7.4%YoYand23.2%YoY,respectively,accountingfor73%and
71%ofourfullyearestimates.Revenuegrowthsloweddownin3Q21to2.9%
YoY(vs9.8%YoYin1H21),mainlyduetosalesdeclineinNBPandgrowth
decelerationinoncologydrugs.CSPChascontinuedincreasinginvestmentin
researchanddevelopmentwithR&Dexpensesrose10.7%YoYtoRMB2.5bn.
BlendedGPMwasup0.6pptsto75.8%whileOPMimproved3.6pptsto25.1%.
NBPcontinuedtodeliversolidvolumegrowth,offsettingimpactfrom
pricecuts.NBPregisteredRMB4.69bnsalesin9M21,down11.2%YoY
pricecuts.NBPregisteredRMB4.69bnsalesin9M21,down11.2%YoY
(RMB1.59bnin3Q21,-16.4%YoY).Salesdeclinewasmainlydueto
approximatelyRMB760mnsalesprovisionin9M21,indicatingarobust3.2%
YoYactualend-salesgrowthduringthesameperiod.NBPexperiencedover
50%pricecutssinceMar2021whilethesalesvolumeexperienced
significantgrowthwithintheyear.Thankstoimprovedaffordability,theDOT
ofNBPcapsuleextendedfrom10-20daysto50-60daysincertainonline
channels.Thatsaid,weexpectNBPtodeliverlargelystablesalesrevenue
in2021E.
ConstructiveandfruitfulBDdeals.Inordertostrengthenitsproduct
pipeline,CSPChasbeenproactivelyseekingin-licensingopportunitiesof
advanced-stageinnovativedrugs.Inaimingtoforgesynergieswithinternal
pipeline,CSPChaspaidspecialattentionononcology,cardiovascular,
autoimmune,andnephropathydomains.Asof9M21,CSPChasalready
signedseveralimpressivein-licensingagreementsandsecuredthree
blockbustercandidatessuchasBPI-7711(3rdgenerationirreversibleEGFR-
TKI),CM310(anti-IL-4RαmAb)andKN026(HER2bispecificantibody).
SmoothprogressinmRNAvaccines.Leveragingitscutting-edge
nanotechnologyplatform,CSPCisabletoself-producecationicliposome.
Thepre-clinicaldevelopmentofitsin-housemultivalentmRNAvaccines
againstCOVID-19mutantshasprogressedsmoothly.WeexpectthismRNA
vaccinecandidatetoenterintoclinicalphaseincomingmonths.
MaintainBUY.Wereviseddown2021E/2022Erevenueforecastsby3.3%/3.2%
and2021E/2022Eattributablenetprofitforecastsby3.4%/4.3%.Weslightlycut
ourDCF-basedTPfromHK$15.20toHK$12.33(WACC10.9%,Terminal
growth3.0%),indicating21xFY21EPEand20xFY22EPE.
Catalysts:1)stronger-than-expectedproductsales,2)faster-than-expected
clinicaldevelopment.