【行业研究报告】百度-Ads headwinds to linger in 4Q21E & 1Q22E

类型: 美股公司研究

机构: 招银国际

发表时间: 2021-11-19 00:00:00

更新时间: 2021-11-19 11:11:05

PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGEPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGEMOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERG:RESPCMBRANDhttp://www.cmbi.com.hkChinaInternetSectorSophieHuang(852)39000889sophiehuang@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(US$mn)58,707Avg3mthst/o(US$mn)680.4552wHigh/Low(US$)354.8/132.3TotalIssuedShares(mn)278Source:BloombergShareholdingStructureTRowePriceGroup1.3%GoldmanSachs1.1%BaillieGifford1.0%Source:BloombergSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth3.1%-3.1%3-mth10.6%3.4%6-mth-9.4%-23.3%Source:Bloomberg12-mthPricePerformanceSource:BloombergAuditor:Ernst&YoungRelatedReports1.ChinaInternet:Embracinganewnormalofregulation–8Nov20212.Prudentadsoutlookin2H21E–13Aug20213.Stepping-upAuto&AIinvestmentahead–20May2021050100150200250300350400Nov-20Feb-21May-21Aug-21biduUSCCMP(rebased)(HK$)BUY(Maintain)TargetPriceUS$218.8(PreviousTPUS$248.0)Up/Downside+35.2%CurrentPriceUS$161.8119Nov2021Baidudeliveredsolid3Q21andin-lineguidance,withrev/adj.EPS+13%YoY/-28%YoY,0%/20%aboveconsensus.4Q21Erevguidancewas2-12%YoYgrowth,midpointlargelyinline.Weexpectadsheadwindstocontinuein4Q21E&1Q22E(forecastingmarketingrevflatYoYin4Q21E),givensoftmacro,COVID-19andtighteningregulations.AICloudgrowthmightslowdownin4Q21Egivenhighbase,butwekeeppositiveonitsLTpotential.WeforecastBaiduCoreOPM-5pptsQoQin4Q21E,toreflectprudentadssentimentandnon-adsinvestment.Wetrimmeditsearningsby11-18%inFY21/22/23E,andloweredSOTP-basedTPtoUS$218.8.Multipledownsideriskislimited,butlackcatalystsinthenearterm.3Q21marginbeat,withlargelyin-lineguidance.3Q21revwasRMB31.9bn,+13%YoY,inlinewithconsensus.Non-GAAPEPSdeclined28%YoY,20%aboveconsensus.Marginbeatonhighergrossmargin.4Q21EguidancecameinatRMB31.0-34.0bn,2-12%YoYgrowth,withmidpoint0.7%belowconsensus.Adspressuretocontinuein4Q21E&1Q22E.3Q21BaiduCore+15%YoY(vs.+27%in2Q21),1%aboveourexpectation.ExcludingIQ’srevguidanceof-5%to-1%YoY,BaiduCorewillgrowat5-16%YoYin4Q21E.Weexpectadspressuretocontinuein4Q21E&1Q22E(forecastingmarketingrevflatYoYin4Q21E),givensoftmacro,COVID-19andtighteningregulations.PIPLimpactwouldbelimited,andmgmt.expectadstobenefitfromdismantlingwalledgarden(e.g.ecommercevertical).Non-adsstrongmomentumcontinued,asAICloudrevacceleratedto+73%YoY(vs.+71%in2Q21),largelyaboveindustrialgrowth.WearepositiveonitsAICloudpotential(backedbyACEsmarttransportationexpansion),but4Q21Egrowthmightslowdowngivenhighbase.WeforecastBaiduCoreOPM-5pptsQoQin4Q21E,toreflectprudentadssentimentandnon-adsinvestment.MaintainBUY.Toreflectadsheadwindsandmargindilutionfromnon-adsbiz,wetrimmeditsearningsby11-18%inFY21-23E,andloweredSOTP-basedTPtoUS$218.8fromUS$248.EarningsSummary(YE31Dec)FY19AFY20AFY21EFY22EFY23ERevenue(RMBmn)107,413107,074123,433136,891151,370YoYgrowth(%)5.0(0.3)15.310.910.6Adj.netincome(RMBmn)18,18222,02018,37120,40223,989Adj.EPS(RMB)52.163.953.258.969.0YoYgrowth(%)(23.5)22.6-16.810.717.2ConsensusEPSNANA54.766.081.2P/E(x)20.016.319.717.715.1P/B(x)1.71.51.41.31.2Yield(%)0.00.00.00.00.0ROE(%)21.312.29.29.510.1Netgearing(%)NetCashNetCashNetCashNetCashNetCashSource:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBISestimates