【行业研究报告】阿里巴巴-FY22E rev guiding down to 20%-23% YoY

2QFY22resultsmissedalready-lowexpectation,withrev/adj.netprofit+29%
YoY/-39%YoY(3%/14%belowconsensus),inwhichcorecommerce/cloud/
DMErev+31%/34%/0%YoYandadj.EBITAmarginwas14%(-6pptsQoQ;in
line).2QFY22CMRdeceleratedto+3%YoY(vs.ourestimateof+7%YoY)due
tosoftconsumptionamidCOVIDcases,macromoderationandtightening
regulation.TaobaodealsandTaocaicaiperformedwell,butmeanwhiledampening
coremarginwithstepping-upinvestment.Weareconservativeonnextfewquarters’
momentum,giventoughbaseandmacrochallenge.WetrimmedourFY22-24E
earningsforecastby14%-19%,andlowerTPtoUS$213.3.
2QFY22missed.2QFY22Etopline/bottomline+29%/-39%YoY(3%/14%
belowconsensus),inwhichcorecommerce/cloud/DMErev+31%/34%/0%
belowconsensus),inwhichcorecommerce/cloud/DMErev+31%/34%/0%
YoY(vs.ourestimateof+35%/29%/9%),draggedbysoftconsumptionand
newretailbiznormalization.Cloudgrowthwasbetter-than-feared.Adj.
EBITAmargincameinat14%(-6pptsQoQ),inlinewithourestimate,mainly
onwiderlossofTaobaodeals&Taocaicai.
PrudentonCMRgrowth,amidchallengingmacro.2QFY22CMR
deceleratedto+3%YoY(vs.14%in1QFY22),belowourestimateof+7%
YoY,forsoftconsumptionamidCOVIDcases,macromoderationand
tighteningregulation.WekeepconservativeonitsCMRinnextfewquarters,
consideringsoftNBS&“11.11”data(onapparelsweakness)withmultiple
headwindstolinger.Mgmt.expected3QFY22ECMRgrowthtoslightly
rebound,butstilllowerthanGMVgrowth.TaobaodealsandTaocaicaiusers
performedwell(TDAACupto240mnbySep;TCCGMV+150%QoQ),but
meanwhilewoulddampenecommercemarginwithstepping-upinvestment.
Lookingahead,weexpectBABAtofocusmoreonqualitygrowthastaking
highersocialresponsibility.ToreflectmorechallengingCMRamidsoft
macroandintensifiedcompetition,wecutourtoplineforecastby7%-13%in
FY22-24E.
MaintainBUY.WetrimmedourFY22-24Eearningsforecastby14%-19%,
withlowerSOTP-basedTPatUS$213.3(26x/23xFY22/23EP/E).We
expectBABA’spricetorangetradeoverthecomingquarters.Suggestto
waitforclearersignalsofmacrorecovery.