【行业研究报告】快手-W-Focusing on improving efficiency

Kuaishoudeliveredupbeat3Q21results,withstrongusermetricsandfinancials.
DAU+19%YoY,thankstosummerholidayseasonality,Olympicsandhigher
useracquisitionefficiency.DAUwouldkeepstableQoQin4Q21E.Weexpect
4Q21Erev+27%YoY,inwhichlivestreaming/ads/ecommerce+0%/+50%/+30%
YoY.Adj.OPMisestimatedat-28%,withlowerS&M/revratiotooffsetGPM
dilution.Goingforward,mgmt.emphasizedonefficiencyimprovementinFY22E,
givenchallengingmacro.Weforecastitsrev+24%YoYinFY22E(prior+34%).
Toreflectitsefficiencyfocus,wecutitstoplineby1%-12%,butestimate
Kuaishouwouldnarrowitsnetloss.MaintainSOTP-basedTPatHK$136(based
onloweradsrevbuthighermultiple).Valuationat3.6xFY22EP/Sisattractive.
3Q21beat.Kuaishou3Q21rev+33%YoY(2%/3%aboveconsensus/our
estimate),inwhichlivestreaming/ads/e-commerce-3%/+76%/+53%YoY
estimate),inwhichlivestreaming/ads/e-commerce-3%/+76%/+53%YoY
(vs.ourestimateof-5%/+72%/+40%YoY).Non-GAAPnetlosscameinat
RMB4.8bn,betterthanRMB6.5bnfromconsensus.
Solidusermetricsahead.3Q21DAU/MAU+18.5%/19.6%YoY(vs.our
estimateof18%/12%),withhighertimespentanduserengagement.Such
strongusermetricswasmainlyduetosummerholidayseasonality,special
events(e.g.Olympics)andhigheruseracquisitionefficiencyafter
organizationrestructure.Weexpectits4Q21EDAUtostaystableQoQ,with
long-termDAUtargetat400mn.
Focusingonimprovingefficiency.3Q21allbizlinerevbeatourestimates.
Adstrendisontrack,withstrongecommercetooffsetsofteduandgame
verticals.Weforecast4Q21Eads+50%YoY.3Q21ecommerceGMV/rev
+86%/53%YoY,higherthanourestimateof+68%/40%YoY.Kuaishou
performedwellin“11.11”,inwhichbrandGMVachievedsolidgrowth
(accountingfor~10%GMV).Full-yearGMVofRMB650bninFY21Ewas
intact,withtargetofRMB2tnGMVinthelongrun.Mgmtguidedmoderate
takeratetrendinFY22E.LivestreamingrevwouldbeflatYoYin4Q21E,in
ourestimate.Weforecastitsadj.NPMat-28%in4Q21E,withhigherS&M
efficiency(withdisciplinedoverseasinvestment)tooffsetlowerGPM
(forecasting40%).GPMdilutionwouldlingerto1Q22E,draggedby
Olympicscopyrightcost,butmgmt.reiteratedconfidenceoncontinuous
operatingleverageanddisciplinedcostinFY22E.