【行业研究报告】中国水务-快速增长的直饮水业务或将提高公司估值

类型: 港股公司研究

机构: 国泰君安(香港)

发表时间: 2021-12-02 00:00:00

更新时间: 2021-12-02 22:10:37

ChinaWaterAffairs’(00855HK,CWA,orthe"Company")1HFY22
revenueincreased26.1%YoYtoHK$6.47billion.Shareholders’net
profitincreased23.3%YoYtoHK$1.02billion.Resultswerebetterthan
expectation,mainlyduetohigher-than-expectedrevenuegrowthin
coretapwatersupplybusinessanddirectdrinkingwaterbusiness.
Grossmargindecreasedby2.1pptsYoYto39.0%,mainlyduetothe
Grossmargindecreasedby2.1pptsYoYto39.0%,mainlyduetothe
government'spreferentialpoliciesfor"fiveinsurancesandonehousingfund"
duringthesameperiodlastyear.
Weexpectcitywatersupplyandconstructionoperationrevenueto
growataCAGRof12.8%inFY21-FY24,inwhichtapwatersupply
servicesrevenuetoincreaseataCAGRof17.6%.Althoughdirectdrinking
wateroperationscaleissmallnow,itexperiencedexponentialgrowth,andis
likelytobecomethesecondlargestoperationsegmentoftheCompany
within5years.Inaddition,weexpectenvironmentalprotectionrevenueto
growataCAGRof7.1%inFY21-FY24.
OurEPSestimatesareHK$1.269,HK$1.421andHK$1.588forFY22-FY24,
respectively.Givennationwidepresenceofitsprojectsandownershipofa
largenetworkofwatersupplypipelines,theCompanyisbetterpositionedto
benefitfromlong-termdevelopmentandgrowthofthewaterindustryinChina
comparedwithlocalwaterplayers.Inaddition,thefastgrowingdirect
drinkingwaterbusinessislikelytoraisetheCompany’soverallvaluation.We
reviseupTPtoHK$11.50,representing6.5x/6.0x/5.5xFY22/FY23/
FY24EV/EBITDA.Reiterate"Buy".
中国水务(00855HK,“公司”)2022财年上半年收入同比增26.1%至64.7亿港元。股东
净利同比增23.3%至10.2亿港元。业绩好于预期,主要因为好于预期的核心自来水业务
及直饮水业务的收入增长。毛利率同比跌2.1个百分点至39.0%,主要因为去年同期有政
府对于“五险一金”的优惠政策。
我们预计2021-2024财年间城市供水及建设经营业务收入将以12.8%的年复合增长率增
长,其中自来水供应服务收入将以17.6%的年复合增长率增长。即使现时直饮水经营规模
较小,但其增长极为快速,有机会于五年内成为公司第二大的经营业务。此外,我们预计
2021-2024财年间环保业务收入将以7.1%的年复合增长率增长。
我们对2022-2024财年的每股盈利预测分别为1.269港元、1.421港元及1.588港元。鉴
于其项目范围覆盖全国且拥有庞大的供水管网,公司在受惠于中国水务行业的长期发展和
增长的过程中,相比本地水厂而言优势明显。此外,其高速增长的直饮水业务或将提高公
司的整体估值。我们上调目标价至11.50港元,对应6.5/6.0/5.5倍的2022/2023/2024
Rating:Buy
Maintained
6-18mTP目标价:HK$11.50
Revisedfrom原目标价:HK$8.50