【行业研究报告】保利发展-Apr 2022 Sales Commentary:Aiming long and rooting deep

类型: 公司分析

机构: 中信证券

发表时间: 2022-05-12 00:00:00

更新时间: 2022-05-12 17:10:35

percentileofthepastdecade,whilethemedianPEandPBoverthepast
decadeis8.0x/1.4x,exceedingthecurrentvaluationby16%/29%,
respectively.Inthelastcomparableeasingcyclein2015,itspeakPEand
PBreached12.7xand2.6x,respectively,exceedingthecurrentlevelsby
83%and142%.Whilethemedium-tolong-termoutlookfortherealestate
sectordoesnotappearasgoodasthatin2015,webelievePoly
Developments’relativeadvantageisstrongerthanthatin2015.
▍Thereisno“shocktherapy”fortherealestatesector,andthereisno
needtoworryaboutcontinuedsalesdeclines.
needtoworryaboutcontinuedsalesdeclines.
PolyDevelopmentssufferedfromweakeningnewhomesalesinApr2022due
tothepandemicandsluggishdemand.TheCompany'scontractedsalesin
Apr2022fellby40%YoYtoRmb30.5bnwhilethecumulativesalesin4M22
decreasedby31%YoY.However,aspoliciesareintensivelylaunchedacross
thecountrytogeneratedemand,wedonotthinkpolicymakerswillchoosethe
“shocktherapy”inresponsetopressuresondelivery,landtransfersandbond
financing.Therearestillplentyofpolicytoolsinthetoolkit,andtherealestate
marketfundamentalsarestillworthlookingforwardtoin2H22.
▍Activelyacquirelandtoconsolidatelong-termprofitmargins.
PolyDevelopments’attributablelandpremiuminAprwasRmb5.1bn,withan
attributablelandbankof520,000sqm.In4M22,theCompanyacquiredland
of1.94mnsqmforatotalconsiderationofRmb28.2bn.Wenotethatthe
Company'slandacquisitionactivityhasthefollowingcharacteristics.1)The
acquiredlandlotsaresignificantlyconcentratedinhigh-tiercities,which
meansgreatvisibilityinfuturesales.2)Theattributableinterestremains
largelystable.TheCompany'sattributableinterestintheacquiredlandis70%
in4M22,thesameasthatofthesameperiodlastyear.3)Landacquisition
decisionsarebasedonsales.Althoughthegrossfloorarea(GFA)ofland
acquiredissignificantlylessthantheGFAsoldin4M22,theattributableland
premiumdecreasedbyonly29%YoY,whichbasicallymatcheswiththe
declineinsales.PolyDevelopmentshasbeenrelativelyproactiveinland
acquisitionamongpeers,andhasspentRmb62.9bnonlandbankingsinceOct
2021.Webelievethattheprofitabilityofthisportionoflandwillsignificantly
outperformthatofthelandacquiredin2020,whichshouldhelpconsolidateits
competitiveadvantage.
▍Whycan'tPolyDevelopmentsbetbigonthecycle?
SincetheCompanyhassignificantlandacquisitionadvantagesandsmooth
financingchannels,whydoesn’titfurtherenlargeitslandbank?Wedonot
thinkthatbettingoncycleistheCompany’scorecompetitiveness.Instead,we
likeitsfinancialdiscipline,whichisstrict,proactive,rationalandcapableof
dealingwithvariouspossiblechangesinthemarket.