【行业研究报告】海康威视-稳定是内核，碎片化是方向，渠道价值显著低估

InvestmentThesis
◼AlthoughSmall&MediumBusinessGroup(SMBG)maylosegrowth,
PublicBusinessGroup(PBG)&EnterpriseBusinessGroup(EBG)will
PublicBusinessGroup(PBG)&EnterpriseBusinessGroup(EBG)will
growsteadily,andoverseas&innovativebusinesseswillgrowrapidly.1)
Industryperspective:weexpecttheCAGRofsecuritymarkettoreachabout
7%duringthe"14thFive-YearPlan"period.2)Corporateperspective:PBG
isunlikelytolosegrowthmomentumasindustryexpandsandcapital
investmentincreases.SMBGmaylosegrowthmomentumbecauseofthe
pandemicshockandlacklustereconomy.EBGwillgrowsteadilybecausethe
mainlycustomers(SOEsandgiantcompanies)arerelativelyimmunetothe
pandemicshock.Overseasandinnovativebusinesseswillgrowrapidly.
Underpessimisticscenario,weexpectHikvisiontomaintainagrowthrateof
14.14%,whichcanbehigherifpandemicsubsidesandeconomyrecovers.
◼IntensiveR&DinvestmentwasthekeyfactorforHikvision’ssuccessful
transformation.Hikvision’sdevelopmenthasgonethroughthreephases:
standardizedproductsmanufacturer(2001-2010),semi-standardizedand
semi-customizedsolutionprovider(2009-2015),customizedindustrydigital
transformationsolutionprovider(2016-present).IntensiveR&Dinvestment
wasthekeyfactorforHikvision’ssuccessfultransformation.Inthepast20
years,theproportionofR&DexpensestorevenueandR&Dpersonnelto
headcountincreasedfrom5%&28%to10%&48%respectively.R&D
achievements:1)Mutualpromotionofsoftwareandhardware.2)Combination
ofuniversalanddedicatedsoftwareplatform,algorithmandservice.
◼Customizationandfragmentationareinevitabletrendsinintelligent
securityindustry.Hikvision’sextensivechannelsareundervalued.
Intelligentsecurityhasbeengraduallyappliedtovariouskindsofscenarios
(education,buildingandhousehold),whileproductsbecomemore
customizedandmarketbecomesmorefragmentated.Inadditiontoexisting
industryleaders,playersinintelligentsecuritymarketalsoincludetechnology
giantsandAIalgorithmcompanies.Comparedwiththesecompetitors,
Hikvisionunderstandsindustrialdemandsbetterandcompletesdifferent
projectsmoreefficientlyduetoitsextensivechannels.
◼EarningForecast&Rating.WeexpecttheEPStobe2.08/2.51/3.04rmb
respectivelyin2022/2023/2024,withcorrespondingPEratiosat20/17/14x
respectively.WeinitiatewithaBUYrating.
◼Risks:Securityindustrygrowthslowsdown,pandemicshock,etc.
PricePerformance