【行业研究报告】腾讯控股-Recovery to delay with epidemic and transitions

类型: 港股公司研究

机构: 招银国际

发表时间: 2022-05-19 00:00:00

更新时间: 2022-05-19 10:10:44

PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGEPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGEMOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERG:RESPCMBRANDhttp://www.cmbi.com.hkChinaInternetSectorSophieHuang(852)39000889sophiehuang@cmbi.com.hkEasonXu(852)39000849easonxu@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(HK$mn)3,364,195Avg3mthst/o(HK$mn)11,175.1352wHigh/Low(HK$)621.2/297.0TotalIssuedShares(mn)9,612Source:BloombergShareholdingStructureNaspers28.81%MaHuatengVanguard7.39%2.10%Source:BloombergSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth-5.3%2.4%3-mth-24.6%-7.7%6-mth-25.8%-5.3%Source:Bloomberg12-mthPricePerformanceSource:BloombergAuditor:PwCRelatedReports1.Challengesyetover,butLTfundamentalsintact–3May20222.Lookinginto2H21recovery–24Mar20223.Factoringinads&gamesheadwinds–20Jan20220100200300400500600700May-21Aug-21Nov-21Feb-22700HKHSI(rebased)(HK$)BUY(Maintain)TargetPriceHK$480(PreviousTPHK$510)Up/Downside31.1%CurrentPriceHK$366119May2022Tencentdeliveredsoft1Q22results,withtopline/bottomline+0.1%/-23%YoY(4%/3%belowconsensus/ourestimate).Bysegment,VAS/ads/others+0%/-18%/+9%YoY(vs.ourestimatesof+3%/-19%/+15%YoY).Gamedeceleratedto+0%YoY,mainlyonmutedinternationalgames.Weexpect2Q22Egamestomoderatelyaccelerate,and2H22Etoseenewgamescontribution.Ads(-18%YoY)wasinlinewithourestimates,butheadwindsshouldcontinuein2Q22E(expectingrevQoQdeclineandGPMstillunderpressure),givenshrinkingadsbudgetforlockdownsfromMar.Meanwhile,FBS&otherswouldfurtherslowdownin2Q22Eforepidemicimpactandcloudfocusshifttoqualitygrowth.Wetrimmedourearningsby11-15%inFY22-24Etoreflectepidemicimpact,withnewTPatHK$480.Stockpricemightseeshorttermpressure,butwesuggesttolookintoitsnewgametitles,adsrecoveryandlong-termupsidefromvideoaccounts.1Q22missed.1Q22revwasRMB135.5bn,up0.1%YoY,4%/3%belowconsensus/ourestimate,mainlyonmoderateinternationalgamesandsofterFBS.Bysegment,VAS/ads/others+0%/-18%/+9%YoY(vs.ourestimatesof+3%/-19%/+15%YoY).Non-GAAPnetprofitdeclined23%YoY,3%belowconsensus/ourestimate,whilemarginwaslargelyinline.Lookingintogamesmoderatereboundin2H22E.Games+0%YoYin1Q22(3%belowourestimate,vs.+9%YoYin4Q21),inwhichdomesticgame-1%YoY(largelyinline)andinternationalgamesdeceleratedto+4%YoY(forPUBGgrossingdeclineandoverseastrafficnormalization).Deferredrev-4%YoY,+10%QoQ.WeexpectgrossingtorecoverfromApr,and2Q22E&2H22Ewouldseemoderateaccelerationwithnewgamescontribution.Nextbatchofgamelicensecouldbeasfurthercatalyst.Lockdownsdisruptiontodampenads&othersrecovery.Ads-18%YoYin1Q22(inline),draggedbysoftmacroandtighteningregulationstoweighonadsbudgetfrommultipleverticals(e.g.edu,games).Bysegment,socialads/mediaads-15%/-30%YoY.GivenshrinkingadsbudgetforlockdownsfromMar(e.g.FMCG,ecommerce,travel),weexpectsofteradstocontinuein2Q22E(expectingsequentialdecline),while4Q22Ewouldseegradualrecoverywithlockdownrelaxationandmacrorecovery.Weforecastadsrev-12%YoYinFY22E(vs.prior-8%).MaintainBUY.Wecutourearningsby11-15%inFY22-24EtoreflectprudentadsandFBS,withlowerTPatHK$480(31xFY23EP/E).EarningsSummary(YE31Dec)FY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue(RMBmn)482,064560,118573,431654,665738,871YoYgrowth(%)27.816.22.414.212.9Netincome(RMBmn)122,742123,788106,882127,571148,197Adj.EPS(RMB)12.712.810.912.914.9YoYgrowth(%)30.10.9(13.7)19.416.2ConsensusEPS(RMB)NANA13.516.319.5P/E(x)24.724.628.824.321.2P/S(x)6.35.45.34.64.1Yield(%)0.40.40.40.40.5ROE(%)21.817.415.411.612.0Netgearing(%)NetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSource:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates