【行业研究报告】同程旅行-Looking into 2H22E recovery

PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGEPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGEMOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERG:RESPCMBRANDhttp://www.cmbi.com.hkChinaInternetSectorSophieHuang(852)39000889sophiehuang@cmbi.com.hkEasonXu(852)39000849easonxu@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(HK$mn)31,455Avg3mthst/o(HK$mn)105.5152wHigh/Low(HK$)21.35/9.00TotalIssuedShares(mn)2,218Source:BloombergShareholdingStructureTencent21.47%Trip.com20.94%TRowePrice6.02%Source:BloombergSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth-3.6%4.2%3-mth-17.4%1.1%6-mth-22.2%-0.8%Source:Bloomberg12-mthPricePerformanceSource:BloombergAuditor:PwCRelatedReports1.Lookingbeyond3M22Eepidemic–23March20222.Movinginto3Q22rebound–23Nov20213.ChinaInternet:Embracinganewnormalofregulation–8Nov20210510152025May-21Aug-21Nov-21Feb-22780HKHSI(rebased)(HK$)BUY(Maintain)TargetPriceHK$18.0(PreviousTPHK$20.0)Up/Downside+34.3%CurrentPriceHK$13.4120May2022Tongcheng-Elongdeliveredupbeat1Q22results,withrev/adj.netprofit+6%/-17%YoY,4%/12%aboveconsensus.Mgmt.guided2Q22Erevtodecline40-45%YoY,withadj.netprofitatRMB50-100mn.Weviewtheguidanceasforgivable,despitetopline/bottomlinemidpoint18%/42%belowconsensus.Webelievesoft2Q22E(duetolockdowndisruptions)iswellpricedinrecentstockprice,andexpect2H22Etoseegradualrebound(Septoreach2021level,and4Q22Etoachievepositivegrowth),withrelaxationoftravelrestrictionsafter2Q22epidemic.GivenTC’slowerexposureinhigh-tiercities,weexpectTCtodeliverabove-industrygrowth,andseefaster-than-peersreboundahead.Forthefullyear,weestimateFY22Etopline/bottomlinewilldrop10%/19%YoY(adj.NPMat15.4%).WetrimmedTC’sFY22-24Eearningsforecastby21-27%toreflectCOVID-19resurgenceimpact,butwebelieveLTfundamentalsremainintact.AdjustTPtoHK$18.Upbeat1Q22resultswithsolidCNYrebound.1Q22rev/adj.netprofit+6%/-17%YoY,4%/12%aboveconsensus,attributabletobusinessrecoveryinJanandFeb.Bysegment,accommodation/transportation/othersrev+18%/-1%/+20%YoY,vs.ourestimatesof+12%/-3%/+0%YoY.OPMimprovedto8%(vs.3.5%in4Q21)thankstoS&Mscale-backtocopewithepidemicfromMar,despiteGPMcontractionto72.5%(vs.75%in4Q21).Assuch,adj.NPrecordedRMB245mn(adj.NPMat14.3%),approachinghighendguidance.Lookingbeyondsoft2Q22Eonepidemicresurgence.Mgmtguided2Q22Erevtodecline40-45%,withadj.netprofitatRMB50-100mn.2Q22Ewouldbetheworstquarterin2022,aslockdownsandtravelrestrictionsdampenedtravelmomentum.Bysegment,weexpectaccommodationrevtodrop38%YoYin2Q22E,withlowerADRbuthighertakerate(>9%,withlightersubsidiesandmoreVAS).Webelievetransportationwouldsuffermore,andforecastrevtodrop48%YoYin2Q22E,withstabletakerate.Lookingahead,weexpectJul&Augtoseegradualrecovery,andSeptoreach2021level,withstabilizationofCOVIDcasesandlockdownrelaxation.4Q22Emightseepositiverevgrowthiftheepidemicdoesnotworsen.WeforecastFY22Etopline/bottomlinetodecline10%/19%YoY(adj.NPMat15.4%).GivenTC’slowerexposureinhigh-tiercities,weexpectTCtodeliverabove-industrygrowth,andseefaster-than-peersreboundahead.MaintainBUY.WeslightlytrimmedTC’sFY22-24Eearningsforecastby21-27%toreflecttemporarytravelrestrictions,butexpectLTfundamentalstoremainintact.MaintainBUYwithnewTPatHK$18(24xFY23EP/E).EarningsSummary(YE31Dec)FY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue(RMBmn)7,5386,8078,2029,536YoYgrowth(%)27.1-9.720.516.3Adj.netincome(RMBmn)1,2961,0491,4211,718Adj.EPS(RMB)0.590.470.640.78YoYgrowth(%)35.9-19.035.420.9ConsensusEPS(RMB)NA0.390.670.87P/E(x)19.824.518.115.0P/B(x)1.31.21.21.1Yield(%)0.00.00.00.0ROE(%)5.03.04.65.6Netgearing(%)NetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSource:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates