【行业研究报告】小米集团-W-Weak 1Q22 in-line; Expect short-term challenges

类型: 港股公司研究

机构: 招银国际

发表时间: 2022-05-20 00:00:00

更新时间: 2022-05-20 10:10:37

CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdateCMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdatePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGEMOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERG:RESPCMBRORhttp://www.cmbi.com.hkChinaTechnologySectorAlexNg(852)39000881alexng@cmbi.com.hkLilyYang,Ph.D.(852)39163716lilyyang@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMkt.Cap.(HK$mn)277,172Avg.3mthst/o(HK$mn)1,532.8452WHigh/Low(HK$)30.45/10.30TotalIssuedShares(mn)20,389Source:BloombergShareholdingStructureLinBin8.62%SmartMobileHoldingsLtd8.53%Blackrock2.86%Source:BloombergSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth-8.0%-3.8%3-mth-31.4%-17.0%6-mth-47.6%-34.8%Source:Bloomberg12-mthPricePerformanceSource:BloombergAuditor:PricewaterhouseCoopersRecentReports:1.1Q22preview:Notimmunefromindustryslowdown–16May20222.Premiumstrategybearingfruits;ReiterateBUY–23Mar20223.4Q21Epreview:smartphonesharegaintocontinue–21Mar20220.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.0May-21Aug-21Nov-21Feb-221810HKHSI(rebased)(HK$)BUY(Maintain)120May2022TargetPriceHK$15.1(PreviousTPHK$17.6)Upside36%CurrentPriceHK$11.081Q22revenue/adj.netprofitdeclineof5%/53%YoYislargelyin-linewithour/consensusestimates(note),mainlydueto1)COVID-19impactonsupplychainandsmartphone/IoTrevenue(-11%YoY/+6.8%YoY),2)slowerinternet(+8.2%YoY)onregulationsandsoftsmartphone,and3)higherR&Dexpense(+16%YoY)forEVandnewinitiatives.Keyhighlightsinclude1)smartphoneweaknessinChina/EUin2Q,partlyoffsetbysharegaininLATAM/Africa,2)solidgrowthinwhitegoods(+25%YoYin1Q),3)strongTVinternetrevenue(15%of1QChinainternetrevenue),and4)overseasinternetrevenueup71%YoY(22%of1Qmix).Lookingahead,despiteourpositiveviewonXiaomi’ssharegain,webelieverecentCOVID-19inChinaandmacroweaknessinChina/Europewillimpactsmartphone/AIoTdemandin2022E,andwereviseddownourFY22-24EEPSby8-14%.OurnewTPofHK$15.1isbasedon20xFY22EP/E.1Q22weaknessonsmartphonedeclineandslowerAIoT/internet.Bysegment,smartphonerevenuedropped11%YoY(shipment/ASP:-22%/+14%YoY),givenCOVID-19inChina,Russia-Ukraineconflicts,FXvolatilityandlow-endSoCshortage.AIoTgrew7%YoYin1Q(vs+19%in4Q)drivenbysolidTV/whitegoodsdemand,whileinternetrevenuegrew8%(vs18%in4Q)duetoslowerads/gaminggrowthof16%/3%YoY.Lookingahead,weremainpositiveonXiaomi’sglobalsharegain(esp.LATAM,Africa)despiteChina/Europedemanduncertaintiesin2Q22E.WeexpectXiaomishipmenttodecline6%YoYto179mninFY22Eandresume9%/9%YoYgrowthto195mn/213mninFY23/24E,backedbyoverseaschannelexpansion.2022Eoutlook:near-termchallengesin2Qandbetteroutlookin2H22.WhileCOVID-19inChinawillhavenegativeimpactonsupplychainandconsumerdemandin2Q22E,wesawpositivesignsoneasingrestrictionsandproductionrecoveryinShanghairecently.Wenowestimaterevenuewillrecoverto11%/10%YoYin3Q/4Q22E,following9%declinein2Q22E.Inaddition,wearepositiveonsuccessfulexpansionintotablets/whitegoodsandsharegaininLATAM/Europe’scarriermarkets(17%/18%share),whichwilldrivegrowthinFY23/24E.EasingCOVID-19restrictionisupcomingcatalyst;MaintainBUY.WebelieverecentstockcorrectionshavereflectedChina’sCOVID-19uncertaintiesandglobalsmartphoneweakness.WecutFY22-24EEPSto8-14%toreflectlowersmartphoneshipment.MaintainBUYwithnewTPofHK$15.1(20.0xFY22EP/E).EarningsSummary(YE31Dec)FY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue(RMBmn)245,866328,309334,627381,186440,714YoYgrowth(%)19.433.51.913.915.6Adj.Netincome(RMBmn)13,00622,03916,89523,45426,921Adj.EPS(RMB)0.540.880.680.941.08YoYgrowth(%)11.763.1(23.3)38.814.8ConsensusEPS(RMB)NANA0.720.901.06P/E(x)18.311.214.710.69.2P/B(x)2.42.22.22.01.9ROE(%)16.414.12.16.68.2Netgearing(%)NetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSource:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimatesXiaomi(1810HK)Weak1Q22in-line;Expectshort-termchallenges