【行业研究报告】-中国经济评论：四月经济数据大幅低于预期；政策支持继续提速

Economics|16May2022
Economics|16May2022
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4月工业生产及社会零售销售受疫情影响急剧降温,投资则较为稳健。制造业生产主要受汽车和设备行
业拖累，而上海是这些行业的重要生产中心。零售方面，受疫情和防控措施影响线下服务和在线销售
全线走低。相比之下，企业资本支出和公共投资依然强劲，抵消了房地产投资进一步放缓的影响。
短期内政策可能将侧重于控制风险，预计下半年稳增长政策效果更为明显。近期货币政策更多通过行
业定向支持，包括地产政策调整支持经济，减少行业流动性压力。价格回升则是大规模流动性宽松和
降息的制约因素，财政支持也在提速，包括给中小企业减税延租，加大公共投资等。我们预计近期经
济政策将侧重于稳定供应链和就业市场并管理行业的流动性压力。疫情受控后增长则有望在政策支持
下强力反弹。
经济数据的回暖仍需时间，我们下调今年增长预测。虽然新增确诊病例已过峰值，经济和行业已进入
复苏期。但疫情全面受控仍需要时间，失业率上升对经济复苏也将有所延迟。疫情受控后，我们仍预
计稳增长政策将支持下半年经济活动强劲反弹。我们将2022年第二季度和全年增长同比预测分别从
之前的4.5%和5%下调至3.7%和4.8%。
ProductionandretailsalesdeclinedsharplyinAprilasCovidcontrolstookatoll,evenas
investmentheldup.ThedeclineinIPwasledbyautoandequipment,sectorsforwhich
Shanghaiisamainproductionhub.Retailsalesalsodeclinedacrosstheboard,including
bothofflineservicesandonlinesales,pointingtotheimpactofstringentcontrolmeasures.
Bycomparison,corporatecapexandpublicinvestmentremainedstrong,offsettingfurther
slowdowninpropertyinvestment.
Policylikelytofocusoncontainingriskinthenear-term,withagrowthpushexpectedtotake
placelaterintheyear.Monetarypolicyeasedthroughtargetedsectoralsupport,including
tohousing,althoughpricepressureremainstheconstraintonlargeliquidityeasingand/ora
ratecut.Onthefiscalside,thegovernmenthasannouncedreliefmeasurestoassistSMEs,
andpublicinvestmenthasstayedstrong.Weexpectnear-termeconomicpolicytofocuson
stabilizingsupplychainsandthejobmarketwhilemanagingliquiditypressure,asthe
governmentprioritizesits“zero-Covid”strategy.Arobustpro-growthstrategyremainsonthe
cards,inourview,awaitingthemomenttheOmicronvariantisdeemedtohavebeen
broughtundercontrol.
Weexpectdataimprovementtotaketime,andsomarkdownourannualgrowthforecast.
AsdailynewconfirmedCovidcaseswerereportedhavealreadypassedarecentpeak,the
recoveryislikelyalreadyunderway.However,afullexitwilltaketime,andtheriseinthe
joblessratemaydelaytherecovery.Wecontinuetoexpectastrongreboundinactivitiesin
2Hassumingsolidfiscalsupportandcorporatecapex.Welowerour2Qandfull-yearGDP
forecaststo3.7%and4.8%YoY,respectively,fromourearlierforecastsof4.5%and5.0%YoY.