【行业研究报告】微软-海外观察系列二：微软，逐鹿元宇宙大数据时代

InvestmentThesis
◼ThemetaverseisessentiallyamorethoroughdigitalworldinbothB-endandC-end
wheredataisstillking.AttheendofthemobileInternetera,thevolumeofdataisstill
wheredataisstillking.AttheendofthemobileInternetera,thevolumeofdataisstill
growingrapidly,whilethespeedofdataanalysisandapplicationlagsfarbehindthatof
dataproduction.Inthiscontext,webelievethatweshouldnotonlyfocusonthe
experienceandapplicationofC-end,butalsorealizethatB-endwillbereshapedbythe
Metaverse.Changesinorganizationalformandimprovementofproductionefficiencyof
B-endcanboosteconomicprosperity.
◼Accordingtoourmetaversehexagonalmodel,Microsoftisoneofthegiantsthat
balancesthelayoutofB-endandC-end.OntheB-side,Microsoftisthefirstcompany
toproposetheconceptof"EnterpriseMetaverse".BybuildinganEnterpriseMetaverse
technologystack,andprovidingaseriesofdatainfrastructureandtools,enterprisescan
changeorganizationalstructuresandimproveproductionefficiencyinthepost-epidemic
era.OntheC-side,Microsofthasachievedall-roundcoverageingamecontent,game
community,cloudgamesandhardware.WebelievethatMicrosofthasasolidfoundation
ofthemetaverseandwellpositionedtocompeteinthefuturedigitalera.
◼Microsoft'senterprisemetaversesolutionhastwocompetitiveadvantages.1)
Integration:Microsoft'senterprisemetaversesolutionincludesalltoolsfrom
infrastructurelayertoexperiencelayer,andenterprisedatacanbetransferredindifferent
tools,enhancingtheefficiencyofdataanalysisandapplication.2)Dataandgeneral
officesolutions:Microsoft'spastdataaccumulatedinofficescenariosandfuturedata
fromthemetaversetechnologystackcanprovidefuleforarithmeticandalgorithmsto
helpthedevelopmentofAIandmachinelearning.Thegeneralsolutionsandbusiness
scenariosaccumulatedbyvarioustoollayersinthemetaversetechnologystackoverthe
yearswilleffectivelylowertheentrybarrierforenterprisestoachieverapiddeployment.
◼Thegameismostinlinewiththemetaverseconcept,andMicrosofthasthemost
completestrategiclayoutofgame3C(Content,CommunityandCloud)among
overseasgiants.AsofJanuary18,2022whenMicrosoftannouncedtheacquisitionof
ActivisionBlizzard,morethan25millionMicrosoftGamePassusersand400million
Blizzard’sMAUhavecombinedtobecomeoneoftheworld’slargestgamecommunities,
makingupfortheshortcomingsofitsAAAgamesandmobileterminals.
◼EarningsForecast&Rating:Sincetheincreaseindigitizationrateisalong-termtrend,
weapplytheforwardvaluationmethod.BasedonitsFY27netprofitof$155.4bn,and
FY22-FY27CAGRof16%,weestimatea28XPEratioinFY27,discountedat10%to
FY22withTPatUSD360andgiveOutperformratingtoMicrosoftinourinitialreport.
◼Risks:lower-than-expectedITspending;lower-than-expectedterminalexpansion;
lower-than-expectedoverseasbusiness;lower-than-expectedcloudgamingdevelopment.
PricePerformance
MarketData