【行业研究报告】中芯国际-Initiation:Chinese mainland foundry leader benefiting from localization

类型: 深度研究

机构: 中信证券

发表时间: 2022-06-07 00:00:00

更新时间: 2022-06-17 18:10:59

SMICisthelargestandmostadvancedwaferfoundryintheChinese
mainlandwithadvantagesinthemanufacturingprocessesofspecific
nodesandthepotentialtoachievesoundandstableearnings.Drivenby
rapidcapacityexpansionandhighcapex,SMICiswell-poisedtosurpass
globalsecond-tiermanufacturersinmarketshareandconstantlybenefit
fromimportsubstitutiontoachievebothvolumeandpriceincreases.We
putour2022E-24EnetprofitestimatesatRmb11.781bn/12.971bn/15.569bn
andBVPSestimatesatRmb15.29/16.93/18.90.Weassignatargetpriceof
Rmb61foritsA-sharesandinitiatecoveragewitha“BUY”rating.
▍ThelargestandmostadvancedwaferfoundryintheChinesemainland
withrapidcapacityexpansiononthebackofimportsubstitution
withrapidcapacityexpansiononthebackofimportsubstitution
SMIChasbeenworkingonwaferfabricationfor22yearsandhasbuiltthetop
waferfoundryinChinaorthefifth-largestintheworld.TheCompany's12-inch
and8-inchwafercapacitybothrankfirstinChina,anditstechnologyspans
from0.35umto14nm,coveringthemostadvancedandmatureprocessesin
China.SMIChasrapidlyexpandeditsproductioncapacityinrecentyears,and
itsproductioncapacitywasequivalentto649,1008-inchwaferspermonthin
1Q22.Accordingtotheexistingproductioncapacityplan,theproduction
capacityofeachfactorywilldoubleafterfullproduction.WeexpectthatSMIC
willcontinuetobenefitfromtheneedofdownstreamcustomerstoshiftsupply
chainsdomesticallyaswellastheboomingdevelopmentofintegratedcircuit
(IC)designintheChinesemainland.
▍Industryprospects:AUS$100bnglobalmarket&vastdomesticdemand
WiththetransferoftheindustrytotheChinesemainland,theriseofdomestic
chipdesigncompanieshascreatedenormousdemandforfoundrycapacity.
Atpresent,theoutputvalueofICproducedbyChinesecompaniesonly
covers6.6%ofthechipdemandinthedomesticmarket,boastinghugeroom
forsubstitution.Theconcentrationeffectofthefoundryindustrytowardstop
fabsisobvious.TheshareofChinesemainlandmanufacturershasincreased
from7.6%in2020to8.5%in2021,whileSMIChasa5.2%share.Thishas
allowedtheindustryleadertoexclusivelyenjoyhugeprofits.Thelatecomers
hopingtocatchupwiththeadvancedprocesshavetobearthepressureof
higherlossesintheearlystage,butthedevelopmentofmatureprocessesand
nichetechnologiescangreatlyimproveprofitability.Withbetterprofitability
andhighercapexandrevenuegrowth,SMICmaycontinuetonarrowthegap
withthethird-andthefourth-largestinternationalmanufacturers.
▍Companyanalysis:Ariseinvolumeandpricealikedespiteoperatingat
fullcapacity+productmixupgrades+ampleordersfromlocalclients
Despitecontinuousproductioncapacityexpansion,SMIChasbeenoperating
atfullcapacity,withthecapacityutilizationrateexceeding100%.Duetothe
combinedcontributionofpricehikesandproductmixadjustments,itsaverage
waferpricehasbeenrisingquarterbyquarter.Intermsofprocessplatforms,
SMIChascontinuedtoseestructuraltightnessacrossitsadvantageous
platforms,suchaspowermanagementIC(PMIC),thehigh-voltage(HV)
processfordisplaydriverIC(DDIC),mixed-signal/radiofrequency(RF)IC,