【行业研究报告】金茂服务-Fast growing SOE player with organic capacity to be improved

aSOEdeveloper,theCompany’sparentcohasgrown19%CAGRintermsof
aSOEdeveloper,theCompany’sparentcohasgrown19%CAGRintermsof
contractedsalesin2018-21andthiswouldtransferintothebigcompletioncycle
in2022-24E.Theprojectcompletionandthemergeof“Sinochem”and
“ChemChina”(GFAinjectionofindustrialpartetc.)coulddeliverc.15mnsqm
managedGFAperyearin2022-24E.2)Cityoperationprojectswithlocal
governmentandCompany’sstrategicpartnershiptocontribute14-15mnsqm
GFAfromthirdpartiesin2022-24E.3)M&Adealsmayadd6-10mnsqmper
yearinnextthreeyears(theacquisitionofBeijingCapitalServicewith2.8mnsq
mmanagedGFAhasbeenannouncedrecently).Asaresult,weexpect
managedGFA/revenuefrombasicPMtogrowat62%/71%CAGRin2021-24E
to154mnsqmandRMB4.1bn.
VASgrowthhighlycorrelatedtoparentco.1)Companyreported36%/48%of
revenue/grossprofitinFY21contributedbynon-ownerVAS(mainlyservices
providedtoparentco),comparedtoavg.20%/23%fortheindustry.2)c.50%of
revenuegrowthincommunityVASwouldbeaffectedbyparentcooritsaffiliates
(automobileservice,move-incleaningetc.),weestimatedonlyc.53%of
Company’sFY21earningsrepresentedtheorganicgrowingcapacity(industry
avg.76%).TheCompanystatedtolowertherevenuecontributionfromnon-
ownerVASto20%onLTbasis,whichisnoteasyandrequiresimprovementof
VASpenetrationincommunitiesundermanagement,whilethebrightsideis
Company’shigh-net-worthresidentsprovidebettermonetizationopportunities,
whichmaybringbusinesspotential.
Adoptedcoreorganicvaluationmethod.Weestimateorganicearnings(core
profits-profitsfromVAStonon-ownersandprofitsfromparent-assisted
communityVAS)accountedfor53%oftotalearningsin2022E.Consideringthe
Company’sNPmaygrowfastata74%CAGRin2021-24E,weassigned18x
PEon2022Eorganicearnings,equivalentto10x2022EPE,implyingthetarget
priceofHK$5.48andtheratingofHOLD.Catalyst:shareincentivesplan.Risks:
1)Parentco’ssalesandhomecompletionslowdown;and2)slowerthan
expecteddevelopmentincommunityVAS.