【行业研究报告】中远海控-警惕需求下行风险

Lookingbacktothepreviousfreightratehike,wethinkthatcontinual
stronger-than-expecteddemandandtheresultedcongestionissuesare
themainreasonsforfreightratehikeandratehikepersistence.
AfterJanuary2022,asgrowthofshippingvolumeformajorwest-eastroutes
dropped,freightratesstartedtodecline.Undertheimpactfromthe
COVID-19pandemic,a"homebound"economyandaggressivefiscaland
COVID-19pandemic,a"homebound"economyandaggressivefiscaland
monetarystimuluspolicyinthepastledtobetter-than-expectedperformance
oftradedemand.Lookingahead,consideringinterestratehikepoliciesin
majoroverseaseconomiesandthealleviatingimpactfromthepandemic,
enthusiasmfora"homebound"economyislikelytoreduceandshiftto
serviceconsumption.Weexpectgrowthofexternaldemandtogradually
weaken,whichmaysuppressfreightrates.Ontheotherhand,onthe
supplyside,astheimpactoftheCOVID-19pandemicalleviates,supplychain
congestionissuesareexpectedtograduallyease,thus,releasingeffective
shippingcapacitysupply.
Evenfreightratesremainedwithinahighrange,marketsentimentmaybe
depressedbyexpectationsoflowerdemand.Wehaverevisedour
investmentratingforCOSCOShippingHoldingsfrom"Accumulate"to
"Neutral",andreviseddownourTPtoHK$14.20.OurTPrepresents1.9x/
3.5x/6.1xPERand1.2x/1.0x/0.9xPBRfor2022-2024,respectively.
回顾此前的高运价，我们认为连续的超预期需求和所导致的拥堵问题为运价抬升和持续高
位的主要原因。
自2022年1月后，随着主要东西航线集运货运量增速下滑，运价开始下滑。在新冠疫情
影响下，此前的宅经济以及强劲的财政及货币刺激政策推升贸易需求表现。往后看，鉴于
主要海外经济体的加息政策以及疫情影响的缓解，宅经济热度可能减退并向服务性消费转
移。我们预计外需增速将逐渐走弱，并可能对运价造成压力。另一方面，从供应端看，随
着新冠疫情影响的缓和，供应链拥堵问题有望逐步缓解，从而释放有效运力供应。
虽然运价仍处于高位区间，但市场情绪可能因需求走弱预期而低落。我们将中远海控投资
评级由“收集”调整至“中性”，并下调目标价至14.20港元。我们的目标价相当于1.9
倍/3.5倍/6.1倍2022-2024年市盈率以及1.2倍/1.0倍/0.9倍2022-2024年市净率。
Rating:Neutral
Downgraded
评级：中性(下调)
6-18mTP目标价:HK$14.20