【行业研究报告】金融-证券Ⅱ行业深度:券商估值逼近历史底部,建议左侧布局

类型: 行业深度研究

机构: 东吴证券国际经纪

发表时间: 2022-07-04 00:00:00

更新时间: 2022-07-05 12:17:33

◼Boom-bustcyclekeepsrepeatingitself.Wereviewedsixbullralliesofthesecurities
industry.1)Thesecuritiesindustryfocushasgraduallychangedfromasset-light
businessessuchasbrokeragetoasset-heavybusinessessuchasinvestments.Thetotalnet
assetsofsecuritiesindustryexpandedfrom0.36trillionto2.57trillionrmbin2008-2021
assetsofsecuritiesindustryexpandedfrom0.36trillionto2.57trillionrmbin2008-2021
(CARGis16.32%).Thepercentageofbrokeragerevenuetothetotaldroppedfrom71%
to31%during2008-2021becauseofcommissionratedecline,whilethepercentageof
capital-heavybusinesssuchasinvestmenttothetotalincreasedfrom22%to48%inthe
sameperiod.2)Thesecuritiessectoroutperformedthebroadermarketasbellwetherinsix
securitiesbullrallies,anditsvaluationadvancementoftenprecededearnings
improvements.Historicalsimilaritiesatthebeginningof6securitiesbullrallies:①2to
4timesRRRcuts(rangebetween1%to4%)andinterestratecuts(rangebetween50to
200bps)boostedliquidityinthecapitalmarket.②Thelinkrelativeratioofequityfund
tradingvolumeturnspositive,andYoYnewlyissuedfundscalemaintainsstablegrowth.
③ThesecuritiesindustryismorelikelytoreversewhenitsPBhistoricalquantilefalls
below10%.
◼Favorablepolicyexpectationsandundervaluationdecidessecuritiessector’s
prominentallocationvalue.1)Marketliquidityandpolicieswillperkup:Theeconomy
isunderpressureduetothepandemicshock,andthusfavorablepolicyexpectationshave
strengthened.RRRandinterestratecutswillimprovemarketliquidity,whilefavorable
policiesmaybroadenthebusinessscopeofsecuritiescompanies.2)Capitalmarket
sentimentisrebounding:Thelinkrelativeratioofequityfundtradingvolumehasturned
positive,investors’sentimenthasimproved,andmargintransactionshaveincreased.3)
Thefundamentalsofthesecuritiessectorarestableandimproving:Theleverageratioof
listedsecuritiescompanieshasincreasedfrom1.23to3.98during2008Q3~2022Q1,and
theROEcorehassteadilyrisentonearly10%inrecentyears.Withthepromotionof
wealthmanagementandinnovativebusinesses,theROEcorewillcontinuetorise.4)
Improvingfundamentalsandundervaluationleadtoasignificantallocationvalueforthe
securitiessector:Sincethebeginningof2022,thesecuritiessectorhasunderperformedthe
CSI300Index,anditsvaluationhasfallentothebottomofthepasttwodecades.The
performanceofsecuritiessectormissedexpectationsduetothemarketdownturnin
2022Q1,buttheriskofstockpledgealsodeclinedsharply.Wesuggestinvestorsto
accumulatethesecuritiessectorduetoitsundervaluationandbetterfundamentals
comparedtothatin2018.
◼Stockwatchlist:1)Internetretailwealthmanagementleader:Eastmoney(300059).With
thegrowingwealthmanagementbusiness,Internetretailsecuritiesleaderwillbenefitfrom
theMattheweffect.2)Comprehensivesecuritiesleaders:Citics(600030),CICC(601995).
Thecomprehensivesecuritiesleadershavesignificantadvantagesincapitalutilization
efficiencywithcurrentundervaluationandobviouslong-termalpha.3)Securities
companieswithequitiesofpublicofferingoffunds:GF(000776),DFZQ(600958).The
securitiescompanieswithequitiesofpublicofferingoffundshavestrongperformance
elasticityduringthegoldenperiodofequitymarketdevelopment.4)Growthsecurities
companieswithspecialfeatures:Internetbrokerage,Chinalin(002945);Securities
companywithrapidgrowinginvestmentadvisorybusiness,Guolian(601456).
◼Risks:Macroeconomicdownturn;themarkettradingactivitydeclines;therecurrent
pandemic;innovativepoliciesinsecuritiesindustryarelowerthanexpected.
IndustryPerformance
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