【行业研究报告】德业股份-逆变器业务成中流砥柱,迎光伏+储能迅猛增长

类型: 深度研究

机构: 东吴证券国际经纪

发表时间: 2022-08-04 00:00:00

更新时间: 2022-08-05 19:13:49

InvestmentThesis
◼Withsteadygrowthoftraditionalbusiness,Deyebecomesarisingstarintheinverter
◼Withsteadygrowthoftraditionalbusiness,Deyebecomesarisingstarintheinverter
competitivemarket.Establishedin2020,Deye'scorebusinessincludesHeatExchanger,
EnvironmentalAppliancesrepresentedbyDehumidifier,andInverter.Deyeistheonly
domesticinvertercompanythatprovidesacompleterangeofinvertersolutions,including
grid-tiedstringinverter(GTSI),energystorageinverter(ESI),andmicroinverter(MI).
Itsrevenueofphotovoltaic(PV)andenergystoragebusinessgrewby262%in2021,
contributing>50%ofnetearnings.Inverterbusinessbecomesthefastest-growingsector
andcontributesthemostprofit,whileGTSI/ESI/MIcontributed45.2%/45.7%/9.1%of
overallinverterrevenuein2021respectively.
◼GreaterprosperityofPVandenergystoragedrivesrapidgrowthofinvertermarket.
1)ThefastdeclineofPVcostbringsalargeincreaseintheindustrydemand:global
solarinstallationisexpectedtoreach456GWin2025.Therisingpenetrationrateof
distributedsolarPVgivesrisetoahighergrowthofGTSIandMI.WemodeltheMI
marketsizetoreachRmb21.2bnin2025,withincreasingmarketshareofstringinverter.
2)Increasingdemandforpowerstabilityandfavorablepoliciesbringsprosperityto
theenergystorageindustry:in2025globalenergystorageinstallationisexpectedto
reach131GW/318GWh,drivingfurthergrowthofESI.3)Higher-than-industrygrowth
ofinverterbusiness:benefitingfromrapidescalationofglobaldemandforPVand
energystorage,invertermanufacturersmaintainedahighgrowthrateofshipmentsfrom
2017to2021,whiletheCAGRofDeyereached169%.
◼Grid-tiedinverterandenergystorageinverterbeingthetwomaingrowthdrivers,
Deyecontinuestobenefitfromimportsubstituteofchip.1)Long-standingfocuson
low-voltageESI:malleableandsafeproducts,withmuchlower-than-peersswitching
timebetweenon-andoff-gridmode,supporttheuseofdieselgeneratorsundertheoff-
gridmode.WithOEMmodeaccountingfor82%oftotalsales,Deyeenjoyschannel
advantagesofoverseasdealers,especiallyintheU.S.andSouthAfricamarket,ofwhich
thesizeisexpectedtodoublein2022.2)RapidgrowthofMI:MIenjoyshighgrowth
ratefromalowbase,withSouthAfricabeingitsmajormarket.Deye'sMImaintainshigh
grossprofityetrelativelylowcost.DeyeincreasesR&Dinvestmentin2022andlaunches
productswith8-channelMPPTdesigntoenhancecompetitiveness,expectingshipments
totripleanditsmarketsharetorise.3)Multipleadvantagesofstringinverters:adesign
lifeofmorethan25yearsandacapacityratiooftheDCandACsideupto1.5help
maximizetheoverallbenefitsofitsstringinvertersandexpandDeye'sglobalfootprintby
highcost-effectiveness.Stringinvertersareexpectedtodoublein2022andseeprosperous
future.4)LeadtheimportsubstituteofIGBTchipwithprominentcostadvantages.
ShortageinIGBT,resultedfromstrongdemand,affectssupplyoftheinverterindustry.
DeyetakestheleadinimportsubstitutionofIGBTchiptoensuresupplystabilityand
enjoysalowercosttomaintainprofitability.
◼EarningsForecast&Rating:Weprojectrevenuetogrowat33.04%/40.71%/35.94%
YoYtoRmb5.545/7.802/10.606bnin2022-2024,andcorrespondingnetprofittogrowat
50.44%/52.07%/39.02%YoYtoRmb0.87/1.324/1.84bn,withP/Eat57x/37x/27xin2022
-2024.WeinitiatewithaBuyratingandPTofRmb261.
◼Risks:Lower-than-expectedsolarPVinstallation;intensifiedcompetition;changesin
overseastradepolicies;insufficientsupplyofrawmaterials.
PricePerformance