【行业研究报告】万科A-Jul 2022 Sales Commentary:Solid creditworthiness and steady sales

类型: 公司分析

机构: 中信证券

发表时间: 2022-08-04 00:00:00

更新时间: 2022-08-05 21:10:29

WeexpectChinaVanke'ssalestostabilizeandpickupin2H22underthecombinedeffectofprojectlaunchesandmarketrecovery.WebelievethatChinaVankecanmaintainagoodcreditimageandfurtherstrengthenitslong-termcompetitivenessthroughhigh-qualitylandreserves.▍SalesinJulfellbyMoM.InJul2022,ChinaVankeachievedcontractedsalesof2.165mnmInJul2022,ChinaVankeachievedcontractedsalesof2.165mnm2ingrossfloorarea(GFA)withaYoYdecreaseof30%(vs.-22%inJun)andRmb33.69bninvaluewithaYoYdecreaseof35%(vs.-30%inJun).In7M22,itachievedcontractsalesof15.072mnm2inGFAwithaYoYdecreaseof40%andRmb248.98bninvaluewithaYoYdecreaseof39%.InJul2022,itssalesfellby29%MoM(vs.-24%inJul2021).Webelievethatseasonalfactors,thepaceofsalesandtheearlierincreaseinresourcesavailableforsalemayexplainthedeclineinsales.Weexpectthatinthecontextofaweakrecoveryinmarketsales,ChinaVankewilllaunchmoreprojects,anditssaleswillcontinuetorecover.▍Cautiouslandbankingshouldwarrantsteadydevelopment.InJul2022,ChinaVankeadded2newdevelopmentprojects,withanattributableGFAof338,000m2,anattributablelandpriceofRmb4.68bn,atotallandpriceofRmb6.51bn,andalandacquisition-to-salesratioof19%(basicallythesameasthe21%inJunand18%in1H22).In7M22,ChinaVankeaddedatotalof21newprojects,withanattributableGFAof2.731mnm2,atotallandpriceofRmb46.21bn,anattributablelandpriceofRmb32.36bn,andalandacquisition-to-salesratioof19%.Onaquarterlybasis,itslandacquisition-to-salesratiocameinat17%,16%,and20%,respectively,forthethreequartersstartingfromOct2021,showingthatitslandacquisitionenthusiasmismarginallyimproving.▍Strictcriteriaareadoptedfordevelopmentinvestment.InJul2022,ChinaVankeadded2newdevelopmentprojectsinChongqingandGuangzhou.Basedonthepriceoflandacquiredin7M22,65%oftheCompany'snewdevelopmentprojectsarelocatedinfirst-tierandnewfirst-tiercities,33%insecond-tiercities,andonly2%inthird-tiercities,pointingtoanotableriseinthecitytieroflandacquisitionscomparedwithlastyear.Webelievethatitsnewlyaddedlandplotssince4Q21showhighervisibilityonprofitabilityandfastercashflowgeneration.Someoftheprojectsarelikelytobelaunchedthisyearandallowthecashflowtoturnpositive.Webelievethatmaintainingstrictinvestmentcriteriawillhelpimproveitscashflow.▍Thegoodcreditprofilehasbeenmaintained.InJul2022,ChinaVankeissuedtwobatchesofcorporatebondsandonebatchofmedium-termnotes(MTNs),raisingatotalofRmb6.4bn,whichprovesthatitstillhassmoothaccesstofinancingchannels.TheinterestrateforitsbondandMTNissueswas3%-3.7%,whichwasbasicallyflat,orevenslightlylower,vs.thesametypeofbondswiththesamematurityinthelast1-2years.Thisindicatesthatthebondfinancingmarketacknowledgesitshighcreditprofile.Sincethebeginningof2022,ChinaVankehasissuedcorporatebondsandMTNsofnearlyRmb18bn.ConsideringthatChinaVankeisa