【行业研究报告】康龙化成-海外布局加速,“买入”

类型: 港股公司研究

机构: 国泰君安(香港)

发表时间: 2022-09-07 00:00:00

更新时间: 2022-09-08 14:11:08

"Buy",withTPofHK$70.31.Thecoresectoroflaboratoryservicessegment
isbooming;businessscopecontinuestoexpand;andcontinuedintegrationis
expectedtocreatesynergies.Therefore,weexpecthighgrowthtrendtobe
maintained.1H2022revenueofPharmaronwasRMB4,635million,up41.1%
YoY.Non-IFRSadjustedshareholders'profitwasRMB812million,up24.7%
YoY,inlinewithexpectations.EPSisforecastedtobeRMB1.58/RMB2.18/
RMB3.01in2022-2024,respectively.TPissetatHK$70.31,whichrepresents
RMB3.01in2022-2024,respectively.TPissetatHK$70.31,whichrepresents
28.2x2023PER,withinvestmentratingof"Buy".
Bottom-linegrowthhassloweddownduetoshort-termfluctuations,and
allbusinesssegmentsareexpectedtomaintainhighgrowthrates.1)In
1H2022,thelaboratoryservicessegmentrecordedrevenueofRMB2,860
million,up41.1%YoY.2)SmallmoleculeCDMOservicesrealizedrevenueof
RMB1,085million,up42.3%YoY.The400m
3
newreactorvolumeinShaoxing
willbegraduallyputintooperationfrom2H2022.3)Clinicaldevelopment
servicesrecordedrevenueofRMB585million,up38.3%YoY.4)Biologicsand
CGTservicessegmentrecordedrevenueofRMB95million,up33.2%YoY,
whichwasstillintheinvestmentstage.Since2020,theCompany’sCGT
testingservicesachievedCAGRofover95%,andhasbeenarmedwith
full-processservicecapabilitystartingfromplasmidmanufacturing,witharound
20genetherapyCDMOprojects.LargemoleculeGMPproductionisexpected
tobereadyin1H2023.
TheCompany’soverseaslayoutcontinuedtoadvance.Afterthe
acquisitionofAbsorptionandABL,theCompanyacquiredAPImanufacturing
facilitiesinCramlington,UKandCoventry,US,inJanuaryandJulyof2022,
furtherexpandingchemistryandmanufacturingservicecapabilitiesworldwide.
Catalysts:Emergingbusinessescontributingrevenue;operationefficiencyof
traditionalbusinessesimprovement.
Risks:Changesineconomiccycleandpolicies;exchangeratevolatility.
化有望兑现协同效应。因此,我们预计高增长趋势将维持。康龙化成2022年上半年收入为
人民币46.35亿元,同比增长41.1%;经调整非IFRS股东净利为人民币8.12亿元,同比增
长24.7%,符合预期。预计2022-2024年每股净利分别为人民币1.58元/人民币2.18元/人
利润增速放缓为短期波动,各项业务有望保持高增速。1)2022年上半年,实验室服务收入
为人民币28.60亿元,同比增长41.1%。2)小分子CDMO业务收入为人民币10.85亿元,
同比增长42.3%。绍兴400立方米新产能将于2022年下半年陆续投产。3)临床CRO收入
为人民币5.85亿元,同比增长38.3%。4)大分子和CGT服务收入人民币0.95亿元,同比
增长33.2%,仍处于投入阶段。自2020年以来CGT业务CAGR超95%,已具备从质粒制
备开始的全流程服务能力,CDMO项目数量约20个。大分子产能预计于2023年上半年投
入使用。
公司海外布局持续推进。继Absorption和ABL并购后,公司于2022年1月与7月收购位
于英国Cramlington和美国Coventry的原料药基地,进一步布局全球小分子生产服务能力。
催化剂:新兴业务贡献业绩;公司传统业务运营效率提升。
风险:经济周期和政策变化风险;汇率波动风险。
Rating:Buy
Initial
6-18mTP目标价:HK$70.31
Revisedfrom原目标价:
Shareprice股价:HK$48.250