【行业研究报告】哔哩哔哩-Short-term pressure from macro uncertainty

类型: 美股公司研究

机构: 招银国际

发表时间: 2022-09-09 00:00:00

更新时间: 2022-09-09 10:10:54

PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGEPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGEMOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERG:RESPCMBRANDhttp://www.cmbi.com.hkChinaInternetSectorSophieHuang(852)39000889sophiehuang@cmbi.com.hkEasonXu(852)39000849easonxu@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(US$mn)9,542Avg3mthst/o(US$mn)188.7452wHigh/Low(US$)116.2/14.9TotalIssuedShares(mn)307Source:BloombergShareholdingStructureFMRLLC6.35%AlibabaGroupHoldingLtd3.26%YihengCapital3.05%Source:BloombergSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth-7.2%-11.8%3-mth4.7%22.8%6-mth-35.7%-17.9%Source:Bloomberg12-mthPricePerformanceSource:BloombergAuditor:PwCRelatedReports1.Theworstisover–20Jul20222.Bettermarginandadsrecoveryahead–10Jun20223.Factoringinepidemicimpact–4May2022020406080100120140Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22BILIUSCCMP(rebased)(US$)BUY(Maintain)TargetPriceUS$35(PreviousTPUS$40)Up/Downside+74.1%CurrentPriceUS$20.119Sep2022Bilibilideliveredmixed2Q22results,withrevinlinebutbottomline&guidancebelowconsensus.Bysegment,game/livestreaming&VAS/ads/others-15%/+29%/+10%/+4%YoY,inwhichgame&adsslightlymissedourestimates.3Q22Erevguidancemidpointmissed4%onsoftecommerceandVAS.Macrouncertainty/COVIDdisruptionsandcontentdelaymightweighonshort-termtoplinerecovery,whilemarginimprovementtrendintactin2H22E.Weforecast3Q22Erev+9%YoY,inwhichgame/ads/livestreaming&VAS+5%/+18%/+11%YoY.GPMwouldimprovesequentiallyin2H22E(forecasting17%/20%in3Q/4Q22E),coupledwithopexcontrol.Stockpricemightseeshort-termpressureonprudentadsandVASoutlookamidmacroheadwinds.Wecutourtoplineforecastby4%-9%inFY22-24E,andtrimmedTPtoUS$35.MaintainBUYforitslong-termuserexpansionandmonetizationupside,backedbyvibrantecosystemanduniquecommunity.Mixed2Q22.Bili’s2Q22resultmissedonbottomlineandguidance,whiletoplinewasinline.Totalrev+9%YoYin2Q22,inwhichgame/ads/VAS/others-15%/+10%/+29%/+4%YoY(vs.ourestimatesof-13%/+6%/+30%/+0%YoY).3Q22ErevguidancewasRMB5.6-5.8bn,midpoint4%belowconsensus,onsoftVASandecommerce.2Q22GPMcameoutat15%,andisexpectedtoimprovesequentiallyin2H22E(forecasting17%/20%in3Q/4Q22E).Non-GAAPnetlosswasRMB2.0bnin2Q22,vs.consensusat-RMB1.7bn.Cloudy2H22Ewithmacrouncertainty.Astheworstquarterisbehind,weexpect3Q22toseegradualrecovery,buttherecoverypaceshouldberelativelysloweronmacrocertainty.Weexpect3Q22Erev+9%YoY(vs.prior+13%).Gamewouldseemid-single-digitgrowthYoYin3Q22E,ongrossingcontributionofSpaceHunter3.Weexpectfull-yeargamegrowthtobeflatYoY,underconservativeestimates.Weforecastadstopickup+18%YoYin3Q22E,withrisingbudgetfromgame,3Candecommerce.Inthelongrun,storymodewouldbringadsupsidewithhighereCPM(30%aboveregularads,whileadloadat5%).Weexpectlivestreamingtoberesilientat+30%YoYin3Q22E,whilesubssoftoncontentdelay.Onthemarginside,disciplinedopexwouldcontinuein2H22E,andweforecastopexratiotoimprove5pptsin4Q22E(vs.2Q22),throughcostcontrolandS&Mefficiencyenhancement.MaintainBUY.Toreflectmacrouncertainty,wecutourtoplineforecastby4%-9%inFY22-24E,andtrimmedourTPtoUS$35(3.3xFY23EP/S).EarningsSummary(YE31Dec)FY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue(RMBmn)11,99919,38421,97526,67232,143YoYgrowth(%)7762132121Adj.netincome(RMBmn)(2,622)(5,128)(7,022)(5,463)(3,055)Adj.EPS(RMB)(7.5)(13.7)(17.4)(13.4)(6.5)YoYgrowth(%)NANANANANAConsensusEPS(RMB)NANA(17.4)(11.6)(3.9)P/E(x)NANANANANAP/S(x)4.32.62.31.91.6Yield(%)0.00.00.00.00.0ROE(%)(38.6)(30.2)NANANANetgearing(%)NetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSource:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates