【行业研究报告】-年底前股市可能面临的挑战

Viewpoint
◼Riskofliquiditytightening:
1.CPIrisestomorethan3%.WeexpectthatdomesticCPImayexceed3%YoYin
SeptemberorasearlyasinAugust,drivenbyrisingporkprice.Althoughthecentralbank
willnottightentheliquiditysolelybecauseofrisingCPIpushedupbyrisingporkprice,
willnottightentheliquiditysolelybecauseofrisingCPIpushedupbyrisingporkprice,
policymakersandinvestorswillstayvigilantwhenCPIexceedstargets.
2.Theleverageratiooffinancialinstitutionsistoohigh.Calculatingthedifference
betweenM2credit(loansprovidedbythefinancialsystem)andsocialfinancecredit(loans
providedbythefinancialsystemtonon-financialsystems),wecaneasilygethowmuchthe
loanatcallisamongthefinancialinstitutions(fundscirculatingwithinthefinancialsystem
withoutenteringthesubstantialeconomy).Since2022,thecumulativeincreaseintheloan
offinancialinstitutionshasexceededRmb800bn,comparabletothetotalamountoffunds
injectedintothecapitalmarketbycentralbankin2015inordertofillthedeficit.This
meansthatleverageoffinancialinstitutionshasreachedtothehighestlevelsince2012
withrisksaccumulated.Intriguingly,judgingbythetradingleverageofstocksandbonds,
webelievethattheleveragelevelofbondinvestmentexceedsthatofstocks.Inother
words,correctionriskofbondmarketcanbehigherthanthatofequitymarket.Anychange
inexpectationsofprices(rise)andeconomicgrowth(risingspeed)couldpromptan
correctioninbondmarket.Highleveragecouldmakethisadjustmentverydrastic.
3.Potentialriskofexchangeratesfluctuation.Onceoverseasdemandshrinksand
exportsfalldown,thecentralbankmaytaketheinitiativestomaketheRMBexchangerate
moreflexible.SomeoverseasinvestorsexpecttheUSD/CNYtorisefrom6.8to7.2inthe
nextsixmonths.ManyoverseasfundsmayleaveChinesecapitalmarketbecauseofthe
correctionofRMBexchangerate.Infact,sincethebeginningofthisyear,Chinesetrade
surplushasrepeatedlyreachednewpeaks,butforeignexchangereserveshavenotrisen.
Someinvestorssuspectedthatthereisacapitaloutflowunderthecapitalaccount.
◼Pressuresoffutureeconomy:
Theeconomyreboundedinthethirdquarterofthisyear,andSCSMacroResearchteam
forecastedthat2022H2GDPgrowthwillreachorevenexceed5%.However,investors
worryabouteconomicgrowthin2023duetothenegativeoutlookofrealestates.
1.Thesignificantareareductionofnewlypurchasedlandin2022meansthatthe
constructionareawillbereducedin2023,leadingtoadeclineinphysicalconsumptionof
buildingmaterials(steel,cement,glass,etc.).
2.Thedeclineinlandfiscalrevenueconstrainspotentialinfrastructureinvestmentsfrom
localgovernmentsandeventhreatensthecontractfulfillmentabilityofurbaninvestment
bonds.
3.Realestateconsumptionissluggish.Theresidentsectorisnotwillingtoincrease
leverageandevenrepaysinadvance.Thesharpriseindepositsinthefinancialsector
meansthattheresidentialsectorlacksthewillingnesstoconsumeandinvest,constraining
theeconomicgrowthpotential.
◼Risks:Lower-than-expectedporkprice,financialleveragefalls,less-than-expected
correctionofRMBexchangerate,stronger-than-expectedpoliciesinrealestate.
ResearchAnalyst
RuibinChen