【行业研究报告】拼多多-2022Q2财报点评：消费者信心恢复，营收利润远超预期

Forecast&Valuation2021A2022E2023E2024E
Revenue(RMBmn)93,950121,918148,269178,368
Growth(YoY%)57.9%29.8%21.6%20.3%
Netincome(RMBmn)13,83030,10237,25646,001
Growth(YoY%)/117.7%23.8%23.5%
Non-GAAPnetincome(RMBmn)13,83030,10237,25646,001
Growth(YoY%)/117.7%23.8%23.5%
EPS(RMB)2.86.07.49.2
P/E(X)41.319.015.312.4
P/EinNon-GAAP(X)41.319.015.312.4
InvestmentThesis
Revenueandnetprofitbeatmarketexpectations:PDD’s2Q22revenuewasRMB
31.44bn(+36%yoy),betterthantheBloombergconsensusestimate(RMB23.624bn);
31.44bn(+36%yoy),betterthantheBloombergconsensusestimate(RMB23.624bn);
revenuefrom1PwasRMB51mn,lowerthantheBloombergconsensusestimateofRMB
70mn.Excluding1P,therevenuefrome-commerceplatformroseby49%yoyto
RMB31.39bn,thankstotherecoveryofconsumerconfidence.Theincreasein
advertisingandcommissionincomeoffsetthedecreasein1Prevenue.PDD’s2Q22net
profitinNon-GAAPwasRMB10.78bn,muchhigherthanBloombergconsensus
estimate(RMB4.20bn),thankstothesignificantincreaseinadvertisingandcommission
incomeandexpenseratiodecline.
Projectdelaysandreducedbusinessactivitydrovethedeclineinoverallexpense
ratio.PDD’s2Q22expenseratiodropped10pctyoyto47%whilethe2Q22revenue
increasedby36%.Thedecreaseinexpenseratioisbecausenormalbusinessand
investmentactivitiesaredisturbed;andtravelrestrictions,onlineworkandotherfactors
resultinsomeprojectdelaysandbusinessactivityreduction.Astheexpenseratio
decreaseisnotconducivetolong-termgrowth,PDDwillinvestmoretofurtherenhance
theteam’scorecompetitivenessinordertosurvivethefiercermarketcompetition,as
wellastobringgreatervaluetoconsumersandsociety.
Effectsofcategoryexpansionbegantomanifest.Thankstothetrustbetween
merchantsandconsumers,thegeneralplatformsawsignificantgrowthduring“618”;
salesscaleofmobilephone,homeappliance,beauty,anddailychemicalsectorsall
doubledyoy.Specifically,salesonmobilephones/homeappliances/beauty/daily
chemicalsincreasedby148%/103%/122%/110%yoy.
EarningsForecast&Rating：Duetobetter-than-expectedconsumptionrecovery,we
raiseour2022-2024revenueforecastfromRMB107.91/130.85/160.15bnto
RMB121.92/148.27/178.37bnandraisethe2022-2024EPSforecastfrom
RMB3.7/5.0/6.7toRMB6.0/7.4/9.2,correspondingtoPEratioof19.0x/15.3x/12.4x
(USD/CNY=6.8999,exchangeratebasedon2022/8/30,perADR=4shares).We
maintaina“BUY”rating.
Risks:WeakGMVgrowthaftersubsidydecline;lower-than-expectedcategory
expansion;weakergrowthofARPU.
PricePerformance
MarketData