【行业研究报告】天伦燃气-Expect 2H22 result to improve, yet maintain a prudentoutlook

类型: 港股公司研究

机构: 招银国际

发表时间: 2022-09-22 00:00:00

更新时间: 2022-09-22 10:10:40

22Sep2022
CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdate
TianLunGas(1600HK)
Expect2H22resulttoimprove,yetmaintainaprudent
outlook
WecommunicatedwithTLG'smgmt.aboutthecompany's2H22Eandfuture
outlook.Thekeytakeawaysare:(1)TLGguidedFY22Epipelinegassales
volumeof6-8%YoYgrowth;(2)TLGmayachieveabetter2H22dollarmargin
asthecriticalcostpass-throughmeasureswillbelaunchedin3Q.FY22E
dollarmargintargetisRMB0.43/cubm;(3)slowdownofnewgasconnection
mayimprovein2H22EbutstillprudentforFY22E;(4)solidgrowthofvalue-
addedbusiness;and(5)rapidtownshipPVenergydevelopment,asTLG
plannedtoinstall300MWoftownshiphouseholdPVinFY22E.Weadjusted
TPtoHK$4.87toreflecttheslowdownofgasconnectionandnarrowed
gasdollarmargin.However,wemaintainaBUYratingconsideringdollar
marginrecoveryandrapiddevelopmentofvalue-addedbusiness.
FY22Eretailgassalesvolumeisexpectedtomaintain6-8%YoY
growth,while2H22gasdollarmargintendstoimprove.TLG'smgmt.
growth,while2H22gasdollarmargintendstoimprove.TLG'smgmt.
gaveaconservativeFY22retailgassalesvolumeguidanceof6-8%YoY
surgeduetoslowretailgasgrowthandintensivegassupplyin1H22.In
addition,giventheCOVID-19epidemicpreventionandcontrol,residential
gassalesvolumegrowthwilloutperformC&lgassalesvolumeincreasefor
FY22.Otherwise,asTLGwillimplementnecessarypass-throughmeasures
in3Q,dollarmarginpressuremaypartiallyeasein2H22.Thus,thecompany
expectedtheFY22dollarmarginmightslightlyreboundtoRMB0.43/cubm.
Gasconnectionbusinessmayslightlyimprovein2H22;value-added
businesscontinueditsrobustgrowthmomentum.In2H22,TLGpredicts
itsgasconnectionbusinessmayimproveandstabilizein2H22,basedon
theassumptionthatmoresupportiverealestatepolicieswillbeissued.
However,weexpectnewgasconnectionofTLGwillstillremainslowinFY22
duetoepidemiccontrolandrealestatemarketdownturn.Forvalue-added
business,TLGguideditsrevenueandprofitwillfurtherboostinFY22,
primarilydrivenbyincreasinggasappliancesrevenueandimproving
productsstructures.
TLGactivelydevelopsnewenergybusinessleveragingitsadvanced
residentialuserresourcesandregionallightingconditions.TLGplans
tocreatevariousnewenergybusinesses,includingdistributedrooftop
photovoltaicsandpromotionofregionalenergygreentransformationwith
the"gas-electricitycoordination"modelinHenan.TLGguided300MW
townshiphouseholdPVinstallationinFY22.TLGalsomentionednewenergy
businessrevenuewillaccountfor10%oftotalrevenuein2024.
WeresumecoveragewithBUYandTPofHK$4.87.Thankstothe
conservativegassalesoutlook,narroweddollarmargin,andslowdownin
gasconstruction,weadjustedourTPtoHK$4.87.However,wehaveaBUY
rating,asTLGistradingat4.5xFY22EPER,substantiallylowerthanitsHK-
listedpeers’averageof8.6x,andtheGroupcontinuedsharebuybacksince
lateAug.Meanwhile,wearestillconfidentinTLG'soutlookduetodollar
marginrecovery,rapidvalue-addedbusinessandnewenergybusiness
development.