【行业研究报告】青岛啤酒股份-A potentially strong 3Q, when our channel checks indicated low-teen sales growth for Jul -Sep

22Sep2022
CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdate
TsingtaoBrewery(168HK)
Apotentiallystrong3Q,whenourchannelchecks
indicatedlow-teensalesgrowthforJul-Sep
OurchannelchecksindicatedTsingtao’s3Qsaleslikelystandat10%+,
drivennotonlybyhotweatherbutalsofestivedemandinwhichitscanned
drivennotonlybyhotweatherbutalsofestivedemandinwhichitscanned
productswereperceivedasidealgiftsduringthemid-autumnfestival.Of
note,theproducthasbeenseeingstrongdemandgrowththankstostay-
homeconsumptionamidthepandemicover1H.Interestingly,aseemingly
weakeningspendingpropensityhasnonethelessfacilitatedconsumption
rotationfrombaijiutobeeroverdinnersandothersocialgatherings.
Coupledwitharelativelyeasycomplastyear,weseegroundsforanother
solidquarter.
2Houtlookremainssolid,whenTsingtao’smanagementcontinuesto
pushformixupgradebyphasing-outmass-marketregionalbrands.Input
costsareunlikelytobefullymitigatedwhenrecentlyprocuredrawmaterials
havealreadykicked-inandimpactedproductioncosts.Thatsaid,givena
lowcompandasequentiallyeasinginputpricetrend,weexpect2HGPM
tohealthilybenchmarktothatof2H20,particularlywhenpromotionalefforts
throughoutJul-Aughavebeendisciplined.Separately,sellingexpensehas
beenontherisegivenmoreresourcesweredevotedforsummerpromotion.
1HresultswereinlinewithusbutwereHSDaboveconsensus,thanks
tobetter-than-expectedGPMasaresultofstrongpremiumization
trajectory.
i)5%toplinegrowthwasslowerthan7%CRBgivenaslowerASP
uptick.PremiumbrandsingeneralwasupbyaHSD,despiteafew
ofthemwereweighedbylockdowns.
ii)Meanwhile,a41%GPMwaswellsupportedwheninputcost
pressurewasmitigated.
Earningschangeandvaluation.Ourearningsassumptionsfor2022/23E
arelittlechanged.OurrevisedTPisbasedon15.0xroll-forwardmid-23E
EV/EBITDAwhichstillrepresents+1sdabovelong-termaveragesince
2018.