【行业研究报告】玄武云-Leading intelligent CRM service provider

XuanWuCloudisthesecondlargestproviderofintelligentCRMservicesin
China,andthelargestdomesticintelligentCRMservicesproviderinChinawith
amarketshareof13.8%in2021intermsofrevenue,accordingtoFrost&
Sullivan.WeexpectXuanWuCloud’srevenue/adj.netprofittogrowat19%/62%
CAGRinFY21-24EasXuanWuCloudprevailsoverpeersintermsofclientbase
(netdollarretentionrateof109.4%inFY21),one-stopintelligentPaaSandSaaS
services.InitiateatBUYwithtargetpriceofHK$10.14.
LeadingpositionintheintelligentCRMservicesindustry.XuanWuCloud,
foundedin2010,isthelargestdomesticintelligentCRMservicesproviderin
foundedin2010,isthelargestdomesticintelligentCRMservicesproviderin
Chinawith13.8%marketsharein2021,accordingtoFrost&Sullivan.Xuan
WuCloudserved2,640clientsinFY21,amongwhom325werecoreclients
(annualcontribution>RMB300k).Coreclientscontributed94.6%ofFY21
revenuewithdollar-basednetretentionrateof102.2%.
Increasingdemandforone-stopintelligentCRMsolutions.Accordingto
Frost&Sullivan,China’sintelligentCRMservicesmarketisestimatedto
increasefromRMB7.2bnin2021toRMB36.8bnin2026(38.6%CAGR).The
marketisstillfragmentedasdifferenttypesofplayersaretryingtoexpand
theirservicesmixalongsiderapidgrowthoftheentiremarket.
FY21-24Erevenue/adj.netprofittogrowat19%/62%CAGR.Weexpect
XuanWuCloud’srevenuetogrowat19%CAGRinFY21-24Eto
RMB1,661mn,drivenby1)11%CAGRinthenumberofcoreclientsto449
and2)9%CAGRinrevenuepercoreclientstoRMB3.7mn.Adj.netprofit
CAGRisexpectedtogrowfasterat62%onimprovingmarginashigher-
marginCRMSaaSsegment(+31%CAGR)willoutgrowthelower-margin
CRMPaaSbusiness(+7%CAGR).
InitiateatBUYwithtargetpriceofHK$10.14.WeuseEV/salestovalue
XuanWuCloudasnetprofitcannotfullyreflectbusinessprofitabilityduring
ramp-upphaseforSaaS.InitiateatBUYwithtargetpriceofHK$10.14,based
on3.2xFY23EEV/sales(basedontheavg.ofcloudcommunicationservice
providersandChinasoftwarepeersvaluation).Keyrisksinclude1)
intensifyingcompetition,and2)risingtelecommunicationresourcescosts.