【行业研究报告】理想汽车-W-Q2行业因素拖累业绩表现，期待L9上市带来量利齐升

NegativeindustryfactorsandincreasingR&D/salesexpensesresultedinlarger
lossof2Q22.1)Orders&GrossProfit:In2Q22,thecompanydeliveredLiONEof
28,687units(+63.2%YoY/-9.6%QoQ)astheproductionandlogisticstransportation
28,687units(+63.2%YoY/-9.6%QoQ)astheproductionandlogisticstransportation
ofsupplychainandOEMswereaffectedbytherecurringCOVID-19pandemicin
ShanghaiandYangtzeRiverDelta.The2Q22averagepriceperautomobilewas
RMB295,700(+6.0%YoY/+0.7%QoQ)andtheriseofrevenuewasbetterthanthatof
salesvolume.Affectedbytherisinglithiumprices,thecompanyincreasedproduction
pricebyRMB11,800onApril1,2022.However,asthepreviousorderswerenot
deliveredintime,2Qorderswerestilldominatedbytheordersbeforethepricehike.
Thegrossmarginforautomotivebusinesswas21.18%(+2.5pctYoY/-1.2pctQoQ)and
overallgrossmargindropped-1.1pctQoQduetorisingcostsandreducingscaleeffect.
2)Expenseratio:2QR&D/SG&AexpenseswereRMB1.53/1.33bn,correspondingto
anexpenseratioat17.54%/15.17%,withaYoYgrowth+4.58/-1.04pctandQoQ
growth+3.17/+2.59pct.ThelargeYoYandQoQgrowthinR&Dexpenseratiocame
fromthecontinuedexpansionofthecompany'sR&Dteamandincreasingnewvehicle
developmentcosts.ThelargeQoQgrowthinSG&Aexpenseratiocamefromtherapid
expansionofthecompany'schannelnetworkandincreasingrent&staffsalaries,while
theYoYdeclineinSG&Aexpenseratiowasduetoincreasingamortizedexpenses
followedbyincreasingsales.

Channelscontinuetoexpand;newmodelL9andLiONEafterpricehikesare
expectedtoleadtoahigheraveragepriceperautomobilein3Q.Asof31July
2022,LiAutohas259retailcentersnationwide,covering118cities;311after-sales
repaircentersandauthorizedsheetspraycenters,covering226cities.Accordingtothe
company'sguidelines,itwilldeliverabout27,000~29,000automobilesin3Q22
(+7.5%~15.5%YoY),correspondingtorevenuesRMB8.96~9.56bn(+15.3%~22.9%
YoY).3Q22averagepriceperautomobilemaysharplyrisetoRMB330,000duetothe
deliveryofLiONEafterpricehikeandnewmodelL9.

EarningsForecast&Rating:Duetothecompany'sfull-yearsalesforecastcut,we
reduceour2022/2023/2024revenueforecastfromRMB57.6/129.8/221.5bnto
RMB50.4/116.9/243.0bn,withaYoYgrowth+87%/+132%/+108%;netprofitforecast
dropsfromRMB0.36/3.37/9.90bntoRMB-0.05/2.98/9.56bn,withaYoYgrowthof
+221%in2024andcorrespondingto2023/2024PEratiosat75x/24x,respectively.We
areoptimisticaboutthecompany'shighsalesgrowthinthefutureandgivea2022PSat
6x,ayearlytargetpriceofHKD167.9.Wemaintaina"Buy"rating.

Risks:Lower-than-expecteddevelopmentofnewenergyvehicleindustry;unstable
supplychainsofkeycomponentssuchaschipsandbattery;tightenedsoftwareOTA
upgradepolicy;lower-than-expectednewmodelspromotion.
PricePerformance
22September2022