【行业研究报告】中国铁建-大幅加码新能源及碳减排业务,维持“买入”

类型: 港股公司研究

机构: 国泰君安(香港)

发表时间: 2022-09-29 00:00:00

更新时间: 2022-09-29 18:11:40

Maintain"Buy"rating;increaseTPtoHK$8.10.WeforecastEPSin
2022-2024tobeRMB2.13/RMB2.37/RMB2.61,withYoYgrowthrateof
17%/11%/10%.WeraisetargetpricetoHK$8.10,correspondingto3.5x/
3.1x/2.8x2022/2023/2024PER.
Businessstructurecontinuestobeoptimized,newcontractsfornew
energybusinessexperiencedexponentialgrowth.Moreover,the
Companyisacceleratingtoenterintocarbonemissionsreduction-related
Companyisacceleratingtoenterintocarbonemissionsreduction-related
businesses,whichwillbecomealong-termgrowthdriver.
Thereishugeroomforrevaluation,astheCompanyisaworldleaderin
infrastructureengineeringconstruction,andhasalsograduallyseenresults
initstransformationandupgradetoacomprehensiveenterprisegroupas
"designer+investor+contractor+operator",whileithasacceleratedits
deploymentinfast-growingbusinessessuchascarbonemissionsreduction.
However,currentvaluationrangegivenbythemarketisata10-yearlow.
Catalysts:Increaseinpolicysupportfromthegovernment.
Risks:1)Overheatedeconomymightcauseinflationexceeding
expectations,2)policytightening,3)infrastructureinvestmentmightfinish
lowerthanexpected,and4)localepidemicsituationmightseefluctuation.
2.13/2.37/2.61元,同比增速为17%/11%/10%。上调目标价至8.10港元,对应3.5/3.1
/2.8倍2022/2023/2024年市盈率。
公司业务结构将持续优化,新能源业务新签合同爆发式增长。此外,公司加快进入碳减排
相关业务,这将成为长远增长动力。
公司估值重估空间巨大,因其作为世界级的基建工程承包商,在向“设计商+投资商+承包
商+运营商”的综合企业集团转型升级上亦渐见成效,同时其加快了碳减排等高增长业务的
布局。但现时市场给予的估值处于10年低位区间。
催化剂:政府政策支持加码。
风险:1)经济过热可能导致通胀超预期,2)政策收紧,3)基建投资完成额或低于预期,及
4)疫情可能出现波动。
Rating:Buy
Maintained
6-18mTP目标价:HK$8.10
Revisedfrom原目标价:HK$7.80
Shareprice股价:HK$4.030
Stockperformance