【行业研究报告】-海外宏观专题：近两次FOMC议息会议申明比较

Recentindicatorspointtomodestgrowthinspendingandproduction.JobRecentindicatorspointtomodestgrowthinspendingandproduction.Jobgainshavebeenrobustinrecentmonths,andtheunemploymentratehasremainedlow.Inflationremainselevated,reflectingsupplyanddemandimbalancesrelatedtothepandemic,higherfoodandenergyprices,andbroaderpricepressures.最近的指标显示支出和生产温和增长。最近几个月工作增长表现强劲，失业率维持低位。通胀的持续抬升，反映出与新冠大流行相关供应和需求的不平衡，更高的食品和能源价格以及更广泛的价格压力。Russia'swaragainstUkraineiscausingtremendoushumanandeconomichardship.Thewarandrelatedeventsarecreatingadditionalupwardpressureoninflationandareweighingonglobaleconomicactivity.TheCommitteeishighlyattentivetoinflationrisks.俄乌冲突正在导致巨大的人道主义和经济困境。战争及其相关事件正在制造额外的通胀上行压力并使全球经济活动承压。委员会高度关注通胀风险。TheCommitteeseekstoachievemaximumemploymentandinflationattherateof2percentoverthelongerrun.Insupportofthesegoals,theCommitteedecidedtoraisethetargetrangeforthefederalfundsrateto3-3/4to4percent.TheCommitteeanticipatesthatongoingincreasesinthetargetrangewillbeappropriateinordertoattainastanceofmonetarypolicythatissufficientlyrestrictivetoreturninflationto2percentovertime.Indeterminingthepaceoffutureincreasesinthetargetrange,theCommitteewilltakeintoaccountthecumulativetighteningofmonetarypolicy,thelagswithwhichmonetarypolicyaffectseconomicactivityandinflation,andeconomicandfinancialdevelopments.Inaddition,theCommitteewillcontinuereducingitsholdingsofTreasurysecuritiesandagencydebtandagencymortgage-backedsecurities,asdescribedinthePlansforReducingtheSizeoftheFederalReserve'sBalanceSheetthatwereissuedinMay.TheCommitteeisstronglycommittedtoreturninginflationtoits2percentobjective.委员会寻求达到充分就业以及维持长期通胀处于2%的水平。为了完成这些目标，委员会决定把联邦基金目标利率提升至3.75%-4.00%。为了维护随着时间推移重回2%通胀的足够限制性的货币政策立场，委员会预计持续提升目标利率区间是合适的。在决定未来目标区间的提升速度时，委员会将考虑货币政策的累积紧缩效应，货币政策对经济活动和通胀影响的滞后性，以及经济和金融动态。此外，委员会将继续按照五月份发布的缩减联储资产负债表规模方案，减持国债、机构债以及机构抵押贷款支持债券。委员会坚定承诺使通胀重回2%的目标。Inassessingtheappropriatestanceofmonetarypolicy,theCommitteewillcontinuetomonitortheimplicationsofincominginformationfortheeconomicoutlook.TheCommitteewouldbepreparedtoadjustthestanceofmonetarypolicyasappropriateifrisksemergethatcouldimpedetheattainmentoftheCommittee'sgoals.TheCommittee'sassessmentswilltakeintoaccountawiderangeofinformation,includingreadingsonpublichealth,labormarketconditions,inflationpressuresandinflationexpectations,andfinancialandinternationaldevelopments.为了评估合适的货币政策立场，委员会将继续监控后续经济展望信息。如果出现风险可能阻碍实现委员会政策目标的情况，委员会愿意准备好调整货币政策立场。委员会的评估将会考虑广泛的信息，包括对公共卫生状况的解读，劳动力市场状况，通胀压力和通胀预期，以及金融和国际动态。