【行业研究报告】快手-W-Share gain intact with enhanced ecosystem

10Nov2022
WereiterateourconfidenceonKuaishou’slong-termsharegainandmargin
improvement,despiteSTadsheadwinds.3Q22wouldbemixed,inwhich
ecommerce&livestreamingremainedresilientbutadsexperiencedslower
recoveryonepidemicresurgence.Weexpectbetter-than-fearedmarginin
3Q22EformoredisciplinedS&M.DomesticbizpositiveOPkeptintactin3Q22E.
Asmajorityofheadwindspricedin,webelievedownsideriskislimited,and
expectmultiplecatalyststoboostitsrebound:1)4Qaccelerationofecommerce
andads,2)bettermarginoutlook,and3)enhancedecosystemandmonetization.
Weraiseditsadj.NPMby1%-4%,buttrimmedFY22-24Etoplineforecastby2%-
6%,withnewSOTP-basedTPatHK$80(onlowermultipleforsectorde-rating).
Resilientecommercetooffsetadsslowerrecovery.3Q22Eusermetrics
trendedwell,withestimatedDAUat360mn(+12%YoY).Weexpect3Q22E
trendedwell,withestimatedDAUat360mn(+12%YoY).Weexpect3Q22E
tobeamixedquarter,inwhichecommercestrongmomentumcontinued
(forecastingGMV+25%YoY),livestreamingstayedresilientat+9%YoY,but
adssawslowerrecoveryonepidemicresurgence(+5%YoY,vs,prior+12%
YoY).WereiterateourconfidenceonitsannualGMVtargetofRMB900bn,
andexpect4Q22Eaccelerationahead,backedby“11.6”promotion(traffic
support&subsidiesoffering)andcasesstabilization.Shoppingmallshould
takemoretimetoenhancebeforeitslaunch.Weexpectadstoslightly
reboundin4Q22E(+8%YoY),forexternaladsrecoveryandinternalads
acceleration.Adssentimentwasdampenedbyepidemicandmacro
uncertainty,butwebelieveKS’sadsgainsharetrendremainedintact.
Bettermarginoutlookwithcostdiscipline.Weexpect3Q22Eadj.NPM
at-8.3%,betterthanfearedondisciplinedS&M.DomesticbizpositiveOP
keptintactin3Q22E,inourestimate.Foroverseasmarket,KSwouldfocus
moreonexistingkeyareas,includingBrazil,MidEast,andIndonesia.Itwill
stepupmonetizationtoenhancesinglemarketbizmodelandUEwithROI-
drivenS&Mstrategy.
Enhancedecosystemwithmonetizationupgradeaftermgmt.change.
Weexpectrecentmgmt.changesinbizlinetobetterdriveLTmonetization
andsupportoverseasoperation,despitenear-termtransition.KSwaswell
positionedtodeliverabove-industrygrowth,byleveragingitsadvantagein
highly-engagedcommunity,trustedusersandresilientecommerce.
MaintainBUY.Tofactorinbettermarginandadsheadwinds,weliftedits
marginby1%-4%whiletrimmedearningsforecastby2%-6%inFY22-24E,
withnewSOTP-basedTPatHK$80.Suggesttobuyondips.