【行业研究报告】蔚来-Five new models in 1H23 to regain market share

NIO’s3Q22earningsmissedonlowerGPMandhigherR&Dcosts.Itplansto
launchfivenewmodelsin1H23,whichcouldhelpNIO’ssalesvolumeoutperform
theNEVmarketnextyear.TheupcomingNIODaycouldbeapositivecatalyst,
asitmaydebutthesenewmodels.Althoughwehavebeenmoreconservative
aboutNIO’sbreakevenpointthanconsensus,wecalculateitscurrentcash
shouldbemorethanenoughtosupportitsoperationatleastthroughoutFY24E.
GPmiss,R&DandSG&AroseQoQ.Revenuein3Q22was2%lowerthan
ourpriorexpectation,mainlyduetohigherincentivesgivenfortheoldmodels.
ourpriorexpectation,mainlyduetohigherincentivesgivenfortheoldmodels.
Vehiclegrossmarginof16.4%was1pptlowerthanourforecastandincome
fromNEVcreditswasalsolowerthanexpected.R&Dexpensesrose37%
QoQamidinvestmentsinchips,batteriesandsmartphones.Wider-than-our-
expectednetlosswasalsodueto19%QoQincreaseinSG&Aandforexloss.
Fivenewmodelsin1H23.Thecompanyplanstolaunchfivenewmodels,
includingthenew-generationES8,ES6andEC6byJun2023.Theothertwo
newmodelsshouldincludeanSUVversionoftheET5,whichcouldbewell
receivedbyconsumersbasedonthecurrentorderbacklogfortheET5,inour
view.Therefore,weprojectNIO’ssalesvolumetorise80%YoYto230,000
unitsinFY23E,regainingmarketshare.
Enoughcashreservesforthenexttwoyears.Wehavebeenmore
conservativeaboutNIO’sbreakevenpointthanconsensusfromthevery
beginning.AlthoughmanagementstilltargetsbreakevenforNIO’score
businessin4Q23E,weprojectthecompanytocontinuemakinglossinFY24E,
givenitshugeinvestmentsinR&D.However,weforecastitsoperatingcash
flowtobecloseto0inFY23EandturnpositiveinFY24E.NIO’scurrentcash
reservesshouldbemorethanenoughtosupportitsbusinessesatleast
throughoutFY24Eevenwithoutanynewfinancing,basedonourcalculations.
MaintainBUY.WecutourFY22Erevenueby4%basedonoursales-volume
assumptionof128,000units.WealsocutFY23Erevenueby6%aswelower
ourFY23Esalesvolumeby20,000unitsto230,000units.Weexpectwider
netlossinFY23-24Ethanbefore,amidnewR&Dexpenseguidance.We
maintainourBUYratingbutlowertargetpricefromUS$28.00toUS$25.00,
stillbasedon3.5xourrevisedFY23Erevenueestimates.Keyriskstoour
ratingandtargetpriceincludelowersalesvolumeandmarginsamid
intensifyingcompetitionthanweexpect,aswellasasectorde-rating.