【行业研究报告】阿里巴巴-Earnings back on growth track

类型: 美股公司研究

机构: 招银国际

发表时间: 2022-11-18 00:00:00

更新时间: 2022-11-18 10:10:49

18Nov202218Nov2022CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdateAlibaba(BABAUS)EarningsbackongrowthtrackAlibabaGroupHolding(Alibaba)announced(17Nov)its2QFY23(Marchyear-end)results:totalrevenuewasRMB207.2bn,up3%YoY,0.8%shyofbothourestimateandBloombergconsensus,mainlyduetolowerthanexpectedChinacommercerevenuegenerationduetosoftmacro.However,drivenbyeffectivecostcontrolandoperatingefficiencyimprovement,non-GAAPnetincomeattributabletoordinaryshareholderswasRMB34.3bn,up13%YoY,5/16%aheadofourforecast/consensusestimates.Withstrategicmovetofocusmoreonbothscaleandefficiency,weexpectsteadynon-GAAPnetprofitgrowthtosustainintherestofFY23.WelowerFY23-25Erevenueforecastby2%eachtoaccountforseverethanexpectedmacroheadwinds,butraiseFY23-25Enon-GAAPnetincomeforecastby2-7%onbetterthanexpectedoperatingefficiencyimprovement.OurSOTPbasedtargetpricewasliftedby3%toUS$158.7,translatinginto18.0xFY24EPE.MaintainBUY.ExpectingCMRrecoveryin2023.AlibabageneratedrevenueofRMB66.5bnfromitscustomermanagementsegmentin2QFY23,down6.5%YoYandequivalentto32%oftotalrevenue,owingtolowsingledigitYoYdeclineinonlinephysicalgoodsGMVgeneratedonTaobaoandTmall.ManagementattributedthegapbetweendeclineinGMVandcustomermanagementrevenue(CMR)to:1)ahigherreturnrateowingtopandemicresurgence,whichimpactedfulfilment,aswellasanincreaseinGMVcontributionfromlivestreamingchannel;and2)softadvertisingdemandamidmacroheadwinds.WeexpectheadwindsonGMVandcustomermanagementrevenue(CMR)generationtopersistin3QFY23E,andforecastCMRtodecline5.7%YoY,butthinkarecoveryinoverallmacroandrelativelyeasiercompscouldsupportasteadyYoYrecoveryin2023.Operatingefficiencyimprovementacrossbusinesslines.Alibaba’sstrategicmovestostreamlinenewinitiativesanddriveforoperatingefficiencyimprovementacrossbusinesslinesarebearingfruit.CombinedlossesnarrowedbyRMB4.9bnforTaobaoDeals,Taocaicai,andFreshippoin2QFY23.Inaddition,adjustedEBITAlossfrominternationalcommerce/localconsumerservicesnarrowedbyRMB1.5/3.0bnYoYin2QFY23.OveralladjustedEBITAgrewby29%YoYtoRMB36.2bn,andadjustedEBITAmarginwas17.5%,up3.5ppYoY,1.9ppbetterthanourforecast.WeexpectsteadyEBITAgrowthtocontinuein2HFY23,andforecastoveralladjustedEBITAtogrow17%YoYtoRMB153bninFY23E.Robustcloudrevenuegrowthinnon-internetindustries.Cloudcomputingbusinessrevenuegrewby3.7%YoYtoRMB20.8bnin2QFY23,amongwhichrevenuefromnon-internetindustrieswas28%YoY,andcontributedto58%ofoverallcloudrevenue(1QFY23:53%).Giventheongoingdeepeningdigitalizationtrendinnon-internetindustries,weremainpositiveonthelong-termrevenuegrowthofAlibabaCloud.TargetPriceUS$158.70(PreviousTPUS$154.5)Up/Downside100.1%CurrentPriceUS$79.30ChinaInternetSaiyiHE,CFA(852)39161739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hkYeTAOfranktao@cmbi.com.hkWentaoLUluwentao@cmbi.com.hkSophieHUANGsophiehuang@cmbi.com.hkEasonXUeasonxu@cmbi.com.hkStockDataMktCap(US$mn)216,179.6Avg3mthst/o(US$mn)80.352wHigh/Low(US$)161.58/63.15TotalIssuedShares(mn)2726.1Source:FactSetShareholdingStructureSoftBank23.9%Source:HKExSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth8.6%-1.3%3-mth-14.4%-1.3%6-mth-8.3%-5.8%Source:FactSet12-mthPricePerformanceSource:FactSetEarningsSummary(YE31Mar)FY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue(RMBmn)717,289853,062882,040987,8641,083,297YoYgrowth(%)na18.93.412.09.7Netprofit(RMBmn)150,578.062,249.061,169.5122,534.7134,762.2Adjustednetprofit(RMBmn)178,954.0143,515.0148,226.8166,988.6182,427.3EPS(Adjusted)(RMB)66.2253.2654.9561.8467.49ConsensusEPS(RMB)66.2253.2651.8059.1366.52P/E(x)30.146.324.812.411.3ROE(%)na6.55.910.29.9Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates