【行业研究报告】京东-Stronger-than-expected margin expansion

类型: 美股公司研究

机构: 招银国际

发表时间: 2022-11-19 00:00:00

更新时间: 2022-11-21 12:10:45

19Nov2022
CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdate
JD.com(JDUS)
Stronger-than-expectedmarginexpansion
JDannounced(18Nov)3Q22results:revenuewasRMB243.5bn,up11.4%
YoY,inlinewithbothourforecastandBloomberg-consensus.Non-GAAPnet
incomeofRMB10.0bnin3Q22was38/41%aheadofourestimates/consensus,
andtranslatedintoanon-GAAPnetmarginof4.1%(3Q21:2.3%),1.1ppahead
ofourforecast,drivenbystrictcostcontrolamidmacroheadwinds.Welowered
22-24Erevenueforecastby1.2-3.0%toaccountforsevere-than-expectedimpact
broughtbypandemicresurgence,andslower-than-expectedgeneral
merchandiserevenuegrowthduetomanagement’sproactivemovetofocusmore
ondrivingprofitabilityexpansionthanscalegrowth.However,welifted22-24E
non-GAAPnetprofitforecastby5-9%toaccountforstringent-than-expectedcost
control,andliftedDCF-basedTPby1.2%toUS$79.5.BUY.
OngoingrecoveryinYoYproductrevenuegrowthin3Q,butfulfilment
disruptionin4Qmaybringvolatility.JD’snetproductrevenuewas
disruptionin4Qmaybringvolatility.JD’snetproductrevenuewas
RMB197.0bnin3Q22(80.9%oftotalrevenue),up5.9%YoY(2Q22:2.9%),
drivenbygrowthof3.5%YoYingeneralmerchandiserevenueand7.6%
YoYriseinelectronicsandhomeappliancerevenue.Insightofpandemic
resurgencewhichimpactedfulfilmentanddroveanincreaseinreturnrate
amidanalreadychallengingmacroenvironment,managementiscautious
on4Q22netproductrevenuegrowth.WeforecastYoYgrowthinproduct
revenuetoslowto2.4%YoYin4Q22E,beforeseeingareboundto10.8%
in2023E.In3Q22,netservicesrevenuewasRMB46.5bn,up42.2%YoY
(2Q22:21.9%),aidedbymarketplaceandadvertisingrevenuegrowthof
13.0%YoY,andlogisticsandotherservicesrevenuegrowthof73.0%YoY.
Marginexpansionwellontrack.GPMwas14.9%for3Q22,up0.7ppYoY,
andmanagementnotedagrossmarginexpansiontrendacrossdifferent
categories.JDRetail(JDR)’sOPMexpandedby1.2ppYoYto5.2%in
3Q22,aidedbymorecontrolledsalespromotionactivity.Fulfilmentexpense
asapercentageofrevenueratiowas5.9%in3Q22(3Q21:6.5%),better
thanourestimateat6.5%,andmarketingexpensetorevenueratiowas
3.1%(3Q21:3.6%),0.1ppbetterthanourestimates.Overallnon-GAAP
OPMwas4.1%in3Q22(3Q21:2.1%),0.6ppaheadofourestimate.We
expectstrongmarginexpansiontrendtosustainin4Q,drivenbyongoing
GPMimprovementacrosscategories,andefficientcostcontrol,and
forecastnon-GAAPNPMtoexpandto1.9%in4Q22E(4Q21:1.3%).
Userengagementcontinuouslyenhancing.Thenumberofactive
customeraccountsonTTMbasiswere588.3mnin3Q22,up6.5%YoY
(2Q22:9.2%).In3Q22,managementnoteduserbaseforJDRincreasedby
around10mnQoQin3Q22,andYoYgrowthofaveragedailyactiveuser
sustaineddouble-digitlevel,indicatinganenhanceduserengagement.It
alsohighlightedthatthird-partymerchantsonJDR’sopenplatformrecorded
over20%YoYgrowthforaseventhconsecutivequarterin3Q22,whichin
ourviewlayssolidfoundationfortherecoveryofJD’sonlinemarketing
servicesrevenueafterpandemicimpactwanes.