【行业研究报告】阿里巴巴-SW-FY2023Q2季报点评：利润大超预期，港股主要上市暂缓

InvestmentThesis
◼Higher-than-expectedgrowthofprofits;conversiontoprimarylistingin
HongKongdelayed:inFY23Q2AlibabaachievedsalesofRMB207.176bn
(+0.4%yoy,slightlylowerthanBloombergconsensusofRMB208.853bn),
(+0.4%yoy,slightlylowerthanBloombergconsensusofRMB208.853bn),
includingChinaCommercerevenueofRMB135.431bn(-1%yoy,lowerthan
BloombergconsensusofRMB140.683bn).Alibaba’sFY23Q2Non-GAAP
netprofitofRMB33.82bn(+18.6%yoy)exceededBloombergconsensusof
RMB29.289bn.Inaddition,AlibabasaidconversionofitslistinginHong
Kongtoprimarystatuswon’tbecompletedbytheendof2022asplanned
earlier,sinceitneedstoformulateandsubmitanewemployeestock
ownershipprogramtoshareholdersforapprovaltocomplywiththeamended
rules.
◼Draggedbypandemicresurgenceandweakmacro,Ailbaba'score
businessremainedunderpressure:inFY23Q2,CustomerManagement
Revenue(CMR)revenuereachedRMB66.497bn(-7%yoy),mainlycaused
bylowsingledigitdeclineofGMVyoyforTaobaoandT-malldueto
decreasedconsumptiondemand,pandemicresurgence,andongoing
competition.Pressuredbyweakmacro,merchantsbecamemorecautiousin
adsinvesting,resultinginpooradsrevenueforAlibaba.Meanwhile,loose
returnpolicyandtheriseoflivestreame-commerceincreasedthereturnrate
ofproducts,bringingdownthecommissionincome.
◼ProfitabilityofnewbusinesscontinuedtoimproveasAlibabafocuseson
high-qualitygrowth:inFY23Q2,thelossmarginofinternationalcommerce,
localconsumerservices,anddigitalmedianarrowedyoy.EBITAmarginhas
improvedqoqfor2consecutivequartersexceptfortheinnovativebusiness.
AlibabaCouldrevenuefornon-internetcustomersgrewby28%yoyand
accountedfor58%oftotalcloudrevenue.Thankstoeffectiveupgradeof
servicemodel,Cainiao'srevenuegrewby36%yoyandadj.EBITAmargin
turnedprofitfromlossforthefirsttime.WeexpectAlibabatocontinueto
focusonearningsqualityandlossreductionfornewbusiness,anditsoverall
profitabilitytoimprovegivenmeaningfulearningsreleasepotential.
◼EarningsForecast&Rating:ConsideringAlibaba’seffectivecostreduction
andefficiencyimprovements,weraiseEPSforecastfromRMB6.1/7.2/8.6to
RMB6.2/7.6/9.4inFY2023-2025,withP/Eat11.8x/9.6x/7.7x.Wefavor
Alibaba'sbusinessgrowthandcompetitiveedges.Wethinkitsvaluationis
attractiveandcheaperthancomparablecompaniesandmaintain"Buy"rating.
◼Risks:Intensifiedcompetitionofe-commerceindustry;lower-than-expected
overseasbusinessexpansion;lingeringmarketregulationrisks.
PricePerformance
MarketData
Closingprice(HKD)79.95