【行业研究报告】美团-W-Long-term development intact despite short-term headwinds

类型: 港股公司研究

机构: 招银国际

发表时间: 2022-11-28 00:00:00

更新时间: 2022-11-28 11:11:16

28Nov2022
CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdate
Meituan(3690HK)
Long-termdevelopmentintactdespiteshort-
termheadwinds
Meituanreported(25November)its3Q22results:revenuewasRMB62.6bn,up
28.2%YoY,0.9/0.4%higherthanourforecastandconsensusestimate.
Adjustednetprofitduring3Q22reachedRMB3.5bn(3Q21:lossofRMB5.5bn),
betterthanour/consensusforecastofRMB1.5/0.8bn,mainlyonbetter-than-
expectedprofitfromcorelocalcommercebusinesssegment,andnarrower-
than-expectedlossfromnewinitiativesandothers.Recentpandemic
resurgencenationwidelikelybringsshort-termheadwindtoMeituan,and
managementaimstodriveforcontinuousYoYprofitabilityimprovementthrough
optimizationinusersubsidyandmoreefficientbusinessoperationfornew
initiatives.Takingtheimpactintoaccount,wetrimourDCFbasedTPby2%to
HK$216.4,butweremainupbeatonMeituan’sLTdevelopmentprospectgiven
itsestablishedcompetitiveedgeinlocalconsumerservicesmarket.BUY.
Corelocalcommerce(CLC)likelyseenear-termdisruptionbutasolid
recoveryin2023couldbeexpected.CLCsegmentrevenue/OPwas
recoveryin2023couldbeexpected.CLCsegmentrevenue/OPwas
RMB46.3/9.3bnin3Q22,up25/125%YoY,andwas0.6/16%higherthan
ourestimate,drivenbyoptimizationinusersubsidyoffooddelivery(FD)
business.FDordersrose14%YoYin3Q22,andweestimateFDrevenue
hasgrown27%YoYduetomorecontrolledusersubsidyprovided.Orders
fromMeituanInstashoppinglifted36%YoYin3Q22,andweestimateitto
reach489mn(up44%YoY)in4Q22,drivenbyincreaseindemandandon-
boardofmorequalitymerchants.Takingtheimpactofnear-termpandemic
resurgenceintoconsideration,weestimateFDorder/revenuegrowthtoslow
to5/17%YoYin4Q22.Forin-storeandhotelbusiness,weestimaterevenue
todecline15%YoYin4Q22,andOPMof42%(4Q21:43%)duetoYoY
declineinrevenuegenerationandone-offmarketingactivitiesconducted.
Overall,weforecastrevenue/OPofRMB41.3bn/6.8bnin4Q22forCLC.
Newinitiativessawstrongoperatingefficiencyimprovementtrend.
RevenuegeneratedfromnewinitiativeswasRMB16.3bnin3Q22,up40%
YoY,2%betterthanourestimate.Operatinglossforthesegmentwas
RMB6.8bn(ourestimate:RMB7.6bn),implyingalossmarginof42%(3Q21:
86%),whichweattributetostronger-than-expectedcostsavingacross
businesslines.Weforecastrevenuefromnewinitiativestogrow31%YoY
toRMB16.4bnin4Q22E,withoperatinglossofRMB6.8bn,flatQoQ,dueto
mixedimpactfrompandemic.ButweexpectoperatinglossofMeituan
SelecttonarrowsequentiallytoRMB5.0bnin4Q22.
RemainupbeatonMeituan’slong-termdevelopment.Meituanhas
establishedastronglocalfulfilmentnetwork,accumulatedalargemerchants
baseandgroupofloyalconsumerswithstrongconsumermindshare,which
couldhelpfendoffcompetitionandsupportlong-termdevelopment.Future
catalystsonstockpriceinclude:1)consumptionrecovery;2)better-than-
expectedUEimprovement;and3)potentialbusinessmodelevolvementof
MeituanSelect.