【行业研究报告】波司登-An inline 1H9/23 result but the macro is at risk

类型: 港股公司研究

机构: 招银国际

发表时间: 2022-11-28 00:00:00

更新时间: 2022-11-28 14:13:30

1H9/23wasinlineingeneral,exceptforthewomenswear(dragsonGPmargin
andimpairmentlossesinduced).Despitethedrags,theoperatingincomewas
stillgrowingat31%YoY.However,fortheupcoming2H23E,weurgeinvestors
tostaycautiousto:1)Covid-19outbreaks,2)macro-economicstatusand3)the
unfavorableweatherinChina.WemaintainBUYonlyduetoitsundemandingvaluation.
Aninline1H9/23ifweexcludedragsfromwomenswearbusiness.
Bosideng’s1H9/23salesgrewby14%YoYtoRMB6.18bn,inlinewithCMBI
Bosideng’s1H9/23salesgrewby14%YoYtoRMB6.18bn,inlinewithCMBI
est.whileNPatt.rosebyonly15%YoYtoRMB734mn,6%lowerthanCMBI
est.,mainlyduetotheunderperformanceofwomenswearbusiness(drags
onGPmarginandimpairmentlossesinduced).GPmarginfellto50.0%in
1H9/23,0.7pptlowerthanlastyear,butitwasonlyduetomoreOEMsales
andpowerlesswomenswear.GPmarginfordownapparelactuallyroseby
2.2pptto63.6%.Moreover,ifwelookattheoperatingincome(wherethe
impairmentlosswasexcluded),itstillgrewbyanimpressive31%YoY.
ContinuedtooutperformtheindustryduringOct-Nov2022.Webelieve
Bosideng’s10-1holidayssalesgrowth(CMBIest.:~15%)wasstillontrack
toguidance,andwearefairlyimpressedbythepositivegrowthachievedby
Bosideng,comparingtodoubledigit/20%-30%declineinentireapparel/
downapparelindustrysalesduringdouble11ontheTmallplatform.
ButweareincreasinglyconcernedaboutCOVID-19outbreaks,andthis
wintercouldbehottervslastyear.Managementdidmentionabout20%
oftotalstoreswereaffectedbyCOVID-19latelyandtheperformancecan
behighlydivergedforareaswith/withoutCOVID-19.Wehavebecomemore
conservativeonits2H3/23Esalesgrowth,becauseofthe:1)surging
COVID-19cases(reached100K+casesinGZinNov2022,evenmorethan
the50K+casesinSHinApr2022,numbersarestillclimbinginBJlately)
and2)potentiallylessfavorableweatheronwards(afteracolder/hotterthan
lastyearOct/Nov2022),weexpect2022-2023wintertobeslightlyhotter
YoY,basedonforecastsbyNOAA(LaNinaisstilllikelyofa~76%chance
inDec2022-Feb2023,butitisinatransitionintoaENSO-neutralinFeb-
Apr2023)andChinaMeteorologicalAdministration(coldwinterisstilllikely
butaveragetemperatureisexpectedtobehigherthanlastyearingeneral).
MaintainBUYbutcutTPtoHK$4.07.WecutFY3/23E-25Enetprofitby
8%-13%tofactorin:1)slower2H23Esalesgrowth,2)less-than-expected
storenumbergrowth,and3)impairmentandotherlossesfromwomenswear.
WereiterateBUYandcutTPtoHK$4.07,basedon14xFY3/24EP/E(from
18xforsectorde-rating),consideringitsundemandingvaluationof12x
FY3/24EP/E,vsa15%FY3/22-25ENPCAGRanda5-yearaverageof16x.