【行业研究报告】天赐材料-2022年三季报点评:业绩符合市场预期,出货环比高增长

类型: 季报点评

机构: 东吴证券国际经纪

发表时间: 2022-11-25 00:00:00

更新时间: 2022-11-29 10:16:03

Tinci'sQ3netincomeattributabletotheparentincreasedby89%YoYtoRMB
Tinci'sQ3netincomeattributabletotheparentincreasedby89%YoYtoRMB
1.45bn,inlinewithmarketexpectations.In3Q2022,thecompanyachievedrevenueof
RMB6.07bn(+107.46%YoY,+16.32%QoQ),andnetincomeattributabletoparentof
RMB1.45bn(+88.61%YoY,+3.25%QoQ).Intermsofprofitability,itrecordedaQ3
grossmarginof36.17%(-7.31pctYoY,-5.89pctQoQ),netprofitmarginof23.97%
(-2.4pctYoY,-3.03pctQoQ).Thecompany'sgrossmargindeclineinQ3wasmainlydue
totheimpactofpricereduction,andcostpertonincreasewithapricehikeoflithium
carbonate.

Tinci'sQ3electrolyteshipmentsincreasedbyabout50%QoQandnetprofitper
tonwasaboutRMB12,000-13,000.Weprojectthecompanytoshipabout91,000tons
ofelectrolytein3Q22,withaQoQgrowthofnearly50%.Ithasgeneratedshipmentsof
morethan210,000tonsduringQ1-Q3andshipmentsinQ4mayfurtherincreaseby30%
QoQ,soweexpectitsannualshipmentsin2022toreach330,000tons,indicatingaYoY
growthof130%+.Withthereleaseofnewproductioncapacity,weexpectits2023
electrolyteshipmentstoreach500,000-600,000tons,maintainingahighgrowthof
60%+.Intermsofprofitability,weprojectTinci'selectrolyteQ3profitpertonwilldrop
by25%QoQtoRMB12,000-13,000,mainlyduetoelectrolytepricesfallingalongwith
solventandadditivespricefalling.Moreover,therewasaprovisionforequityincentive
expensesofRMB60mnin3Q22;ifaddedback,thecompany'sprofitspertonwillbe
aboutRMB13,500,andtheannualprofitspertonarestillexpectedtomaintainatabout
RMB14,000-15,000.Asthecompanyobtainedanobviouscostadvantage,weexpectits
profitspertonwillmaintainatRMB11,000+in2023withthegradualreleaseofnew
productioncapacityofLIFSIandadditivestohedgetheimpactofthepricedropof
LiPF6.

Theironphosphateshipmentsrosesignificantlyin3Qandnetprofitperton
remainedhigh.Weprojectthecompanytoship9,000-10,000tonsofferricphosphatein
2022Q3,upby10%-20%QoQ,mainlythankstothereleaseofnewferricphosphate
productioncapacityfromOctober2022.Withthereleaseofnewcapacity,weexpectits
annualironphosphateshipmentswillbenearly50,000tonsin2022.Intermsof
profitability,weforecastitsprofitpertontobenearlyRMB7,000-8,000asthesupplyof
ironphosphateremainedatightbalanceinQ3.Also,thelithiumironphosphateas
cathodematerialoflithiumbatteriesbegantocontributeprofits,andironphosphate+
lithiumironphosphatebroughtatotalprofitofmorethanRMB800mninQ3.The
lithiumironphosphatesectorisexpectedtoremainhighprofitpertonallyearround..

EarningsForecast&Rating:Wemaintainthecompany’s2022-2024netincome
forecastofRMB6.05/7.58/9.9bn,withaYoYgrowthof174%/25%/31%and
correspondingtoaPEof13x/11x/8x.AsTinciisaleaderintheelectrolyteindustry,we
givea2023PEof20xandatargetpriceofRMB78.8,maintaininga"BUY"rating..

Risks:Lower-than-expectedsalesofelectricvehicles;sharpfluctuationofmaterial
prices.
PricePerformance
MarketData