【行业研究报告】哔哩哔哩-Focus on more sustainable growth

30Nov2022
CMBInternationalGlobalMarkets|EquityResearch|CompanyUpdate
Bilibili(BILIUS)
Focusonmoresustainablegrowth
BiliBilitotalrevenuewasupby11%YoYand18%QoQtoRMB5.8bnin3Q22,in
linewithconsensus/ourestimateofRMB5.7/5.8bn.Adjustednetlosswidenedby
9%YoYbutnarrowedby10%QoQtoRMB1.76bnin3Q22,betterthan
consensus/ourestimateofRMB1.83/1.97bn,duetosolidGPMexpansion(+3.2pct
QoQ)andeffectivecontrolinmarketingexpenses(-25%YoY).For4Q22E,the
companyguidedtotalrevenuetoincreaseby4-7%YoYtoRMB6.0-6.2bn,withYoY
growthslowingduetorelativelysoftadvertisingandmobilegamebusinesses.
Lookingforward,BiliwillfocusmoreonDAU(ratherthanMAU)growthanduser
qualitytoimprovemonetizationefficiencyandcontrolexpenses.WemaintainFY-
22-24ErevenueforecastlargelyunchangedbutnarrowedFY22-24Eadjustednet
lossforecasttoRMB7.0/4.2/1.8bn(previous:RMB7.7/5.2/2.6bn)onbetterexpense
control.WeliftSOTP-basedTPby5.0%toUS$21.0.MaintainBUY.
Monetizationwellontrack.VASrevenueincreasedby16%YoYtoRMB2.2bn
(38%oftotalrevenue)in3Q22andwasinlinewithourestimate,drivenbysolid
(38%oftotalrevenue)in3Q22andwasinlinewithourestimate,drivenbysolid
growthofitslivestreamingMPUs(+79%YoY).Bili’sintegrationofthePUGV
andlivestreamingecosystemcontinuestomakeprogress,withthenumberof
livebroadcastersupby67%YoYin3Q22.MobilegamerevenuerecordedYoY
growthof5.7%toRMB1.5bnin3Q22(25%oftotalrevenue),duetothenewly
launchedgames.Bili’sinvestmentingamedevelopmentcapabilitybeganto
bearfruit,withitsself-developedgamesalreadyaccountingfor9%ofmobile
gamerevenuein3Q22.Adrevenuegrewby16%YoYtoRMB1.4bnin3Q22
(23%oftotalrevenue),supportedbyresilientgrowthofperformanceadrevenue.
WeexpectadrevenuetobeflattishYoYin4Q22E,duetothehigh-baseeffect
andmacrochallenges.
Shiftingfocusfromusergrowthtouserquality.Bili’saverageMAUsin3Q22
wasupby25%YoYand9%QoQto333mn,withsolidenhancementin
marketingefficiency(S&Mexpenses:-25%YoY).Userqualityalsofurther
improvedin3Q22.AveragetimespendperDAUgrewby9%YoYtoarecord-
highof96minutes;andaveragedailyvideoviewsgrewby64%YoYto3.7bnin
3Q22.Lookingahead,BiliwillputmoreemphasisonDAUgrowthanduser
qualitytodriveitsDAU/MAUratiotoc.30%in2023E(3Q22:27%),whilethe
companyalsoremainsconfidentinachievingits400mnMAUtargetby2023E.
Maintainnon-GAAPOPbreakeventargetinFY24E.Grossmarginexpanded
by3.2pctQoQto18.2%in3Q22,attributabletotherecoveryofhigher-margin
ads&mobilegamebusiness,andthecontrolincontentinvestment.Bili’s
expensescontrolinitiativeledtoadropofitstotalopexratiofrom55.6/59.7%in
3Q21/2Q22to50.1%in3Q22.S&Mexpensesdeclinedby25%YoYto
RMB1.2bnin3Q22,equivalentto21.1%oftotalrevenue(3Q21/2Q22:
31.4/23.9%).Overall,adjustednetmarginimprovedfrom-31.0/-40.0%in
3Q21/2Q22to-30.4%in3Q22.Managementexpectsfurtherdeclineinopexand
narrowingnetlossin2023E,asthecompanyoptimizesitsorganizational
structure(whichwillbecompletedby4Q22)andcontrolsmarketingexpenses.