【行业研究报告】欢聚-Margin surprise, with Shopline as next driver

类型: 美股公司研究

机构: 招银国际

发表时间: 2022-11-30 00:00:00

更新时间: 2022-11-30 12:10:49

JOYY’s3Q22resultsbeatonmarginsurprise,withguidancelargelyinline.We
expectrev-9%YoYin4Q22E,inwhichShoplineconsolidationtopartiallyoffset
Bigo’sheadwinds.WithrisingpayinguserandMiddleEaststabilization,Bigo
wouldresumegrowthin2H23E(+2%YoYinFY23E),inourview.Weexpect
Shoplinetobealong-termdriver,withrevCAGR>30%inFY22-24E(9%oftotal
revinFY23E),backedbyitsregionexpansion,risingcross-borderbizand
resilientGMVinHKmkt.4Q22Emarginmightbedilutedbyannualgalaand
Shoplineloss,butlong-termtrendremainsintact.TofactorinShopline’s
consolidation(withnetloss)andsoftmacro,wecutFY22-24Eearningsby6%-
26%,butkeepourSOTP-basedTPatUS$50unchanged(asBigo’searningsnot
impacted).
3Q22beatonmarginwithinlineguidance.3Q22rev-10%YoY,2.0%
aboveconsensus.4Q22ErevguidedatUS$594mntoUS$619mn,midpoint
aboveconsensus.4Q22ErevguidedatUS$594mntoUS$619mn,midpoint
largelyinlinewithconsensus(BigoLivemissedifexcludingShopline’s
consolidation).Non-GAAPNPcameoutatUS$71mn,210%above
consensus,representingmarginat12%(vs.+4pptsQoQ),attributableto
higherGPMandcontinuouscostsavingsonopex.
ExpectingBigotoresumegrowthin2H23E.Weexpectrev-9%YoYin
4Q22E,inwhichfull-quartershoplinerevcontributiontopartiallyoffset
Bigo’srevdecline.BigoLiveheadwindswereyetover(e.g.traffic
normalization,softmacro,inflation,TikTok’scompetition),butsomeregions
resumedpositiverevgrowthYoYin9M22,includingAustralia&New
Zealand,Philippines,andtheUK.WithrisingpayinguserandMiddleEast
stabilization,weexpectBigotoshowlowsingledigitgrowthinFY23E
(positivegrowthin2H23E).4Q22Eadj.NPMmightbedilutedbyannualgala
andShoplineloss(forecastingat1%),butlong-termmarginimprovement
remainsintact.Lookingahead,weexpectadj.NPMofGroupat6.1%/6.9%
inFY23/24E,withcontinuouscostdiscipline,ROI-drivenS&Mandnarrowing
lossofShopline.
Shoplineasnextdriver,despiteshort-termmargindilution.Weforecast
ShoplinetocontributerevofUS$40mnin4Q22E,withnetlossestimatedat
US$45mn.Asafast-growingecommerceSaaSprovider,weseehigh
visibilityforShoplinetodeliver>30%revCAGRinFY22-24E(contributing
9%ofGrouprevinFY23E),backedbyitsregionexpansion,risingcross-
borderbizandresilientGMVinHKmkt.
MaintainBUY.WecutFY22-24Eearningsby6%-26%,butkeepSOTP-
basedTPatUS$50unchanged(asBigo’searningsnotimpacted).