【行业研究报告】上机数控-硅片新贵，一体化布局成本领先

InvestmentThesis
◼Leaderofsiliconwaferslicerindustryandup-risingstarofsiliconwaferindustry:
WuxiShangjiAutomation(WXSJ)enteredthephotovoltaicindustryin2004andmainly
WuxiShangjiAutomation(WXSJ)enteredthephotovoltaicindustryin2004andmainly
engagedinproducingdiamondwireslicer.WXSJkeptitsleadingpositioninsilicon
waferslicerindustryduring2015-2018witha45%marketsharein2018.In2019,WXSJ
seizedtheopportunityofinsufficientsupplyofsiliconwaferstovigorouslyexpandits
siliconwaferbusiness,andsuccessfullytransformedandbecamethethirdlargest
supplierinthesiliconwaferindustryin2020.Sincethen,WXSJhasgraduallyreduced
thesalesofsiliconwaferslicerandconvertedthemforself-use.In2021,WXSJ
expandedupstreamrawmaterialanddownstreamN-typebatterybusinessesforindustrial
integration.
◼Photovoltaic(PV)industryshowsgreatpotentialafteritsgridparity;Penetration
rateofsiliconwafersinlargesizeisincreasing.1)PVgridparityeracamewithgreat
potentialinPVindustry.WebelievetheglobalPVinstalledcapacitywillreach539GW
and1432GWin2025and2030respectively,drivingagreatmarketdemandforsilicon
wafer.2)Largesizewaferhasobviousadvantagesoversmallone.Theproportionof
largesizewafertothetotalintheindustrywillincreaseto75%in2022.Withthe
introductionofnewbatterytechnology,N-typeandthinwaferwilleffectivelyimprove
theenergyconversionefficiencyandreducesiliconconsumption.WXSJhasstrong
competitiveadvantagesduetoitsleadingtechnology.3)Emergingplayersexpand
rapidly,leadingtoamorefragmentedcompetitivepattern.Theexcessprofitof
monocrystallinesiliconwafershasattractedtheexpansionofproductioncapacityinthe
industry.Theindustryproductioncapacityofmonocrystallinesiliconwaferswillexceed
500GWand600GWattheendof2022and2023respectively.4)During2021-2022,
undersupplyofpolysiliconmaterialhasledtotheshortageofsiliconwafer,which
improvedtheprofitabilityofsiliconwafers.Theremaybeashortageofhigh-purity
quartzsandin2023,whichwillhelpsiliconwaferleaderstoexpandtheirnon-silicon
costadvantages.Withthegradualabundanceofpolysiliconsupply,weexpectnetprofit
perwattofsiliconwafertoslightlydeclineto0.06/0.04Win2023/2024respectively.
◼WXSJisanup-risingstarofsiliconwaferindustrywithintegratedlayout.1)
Continuousexpansionofproductioncapacity.WXSJisexpectedtohaveproduction
capacityof50GWsiliconrodand40GWsiliconwaferbytheendof2022and70GWfor
bothin2023.2)Excellentprofitability.WXSJlocateditsproductionbasesintheareas
withlowelectricitypricestoreducecost,withitsprofitabilityperwattsituatinginthe
firstechelon.3)Upstreampolysiliconlayout.WXSJparticipatedinGCLBaotou
granularsiliconproductioncapacityandbuildsitsownnano-siliconandhigh-purity
silicontoensurethepolysiliconsupply.WXSJislikelytobuildproductioncapacityof
40,000tonspolysiliconand20,000tonsgranularsiliconinequityin2023.4)N-type
batterylayout.WXSJbuiltits24GWTOPConbatterybaseinXuzhou,andwasexpected
toput14GWPhaseIProjectintoproductionin2023Q2.
◼EarningsForecast&Rating.WeinitiatewithaBuyratingandTPat192in2023
givenP/Eratioat12x,consideringWXSJ’sgreatprofitabilityaftersuccessfully
transformingtosiliconwafersupplier.WeexpectWXSJ’snetprofitriseby
110%/72%/10%YoYtoRmb3.597/6.194/6.833bnin2022/2023/2024respectively,with
correspondingEPSatRmb9.30/16.01/17.67respectively.
◼Risks:Intensifiedcompetition,milder-than-expectedpolicysupport,less-than-expected
overseasexpansion.
PricePerformance
-60%