【行业研究报告】昱能科技-动态点评：微逆出货稳步增长，2023年储能放量增长

Forecast&Valuation2021A2022E2023E2024ERevenue(RMBmn)6651,5064,1496,534Growth(YoY%)36%126%175%58%Netprofit(RMBmn)1034201,2061,874Growth(YoY%)34%308%187%55%EPS(RMB)1.295.2515.0723.42P/E(X)380.3493.1532.4620.89InvestmentThesis◼Yuneng’srevenuegrowssteadilyandwillsoarin2023.In2022Q1-3,Yuneng’srevenueroseby120%YoYtoRmb928mn;thenetprofitroseby338%YoYtoRmb253mn.In2022Q3,therevenueroseby185%YoY/33%QoQtoRmb430mn;thenetprofitroseby476%YoY/26%QoQtoRmb124mn.Weexpectthattherevenuewillnetprofitroseby476%YoY/26%QoQtoRmb124mn.WeexpectthattherevenuewillbeRmb1.4-1.5bnin2022andriseby200-300%YoYtoRmb4.0-4.5bnin2023withastrongergrowth.Thegrossprofitmarginincreasedby2pctYoYto39.5%in2022Q1-3andincreasedby1.1pctYoYto39%in2022Q3;thenetprofitrateincreasedby14pctYoYto27.2%in2022Q1-3andincreasedby14pctYoYto28.8%in2022Q3.Theprofitabilityfluctuatesslightly,andweexpectthatitwillremainstableinthefuture.◼Micro-invertershipmentswillincreaseby200%-300%YoYin2023.Yuneng’smicro-invertershipments(convertedtothenumberofPVmodules)was1.74mn.in2022Q1-Q3and0.79mnin2022Q3(increaseby30%+QoQ).Themicro-invertermatching2PVmodulescountfor50%ofthetotalshipments.In2022Q3,themicro-invertershippedtotheEurope,NorthAmerica,andLatinAmericaaccountedfor34%,33%and22%ofthetotalshipments,respectively.TheproportionoftheNorthAmericamicro-invertershipmentoutofthetotalincreased.Weexpectthatthemicro-invertershipment(convertedtothenumberofPVmodules)willincreasebymorethan200%YoYto280-300mnin2022and200-300%YoYto800mn.in2023,whilethemicro-inverterrevenuewillcountforabout80%ofYuneng’stotal.◼Energystoragebusinesswillgrowrapidlyin2023andbecomeasecondgrowthengineforYuneng.In2022,Yunenglaunchedenergystorageproducts,containing3kwand5kwAC-coupledon-gridandoff-gridsingle-phaseenergystorageinverters,withtwobusinessmodelofintegratedandsplitmachinetomeetthecustomers’diversifieddemands.Yunengshippedasmallamountofenergystorageproductsin2022.WeexpectthatYuneng’senergystoragebusinesswillincreaserapidlyandcontributeaboutRmb400-600mnrevenuein2023,whichwillaccountforabout10-15%ofthetotalrevenue,becomingYuneng’ssecondgrowthengine.◼Morethanhalfoftheemployeesreceivedstockownershipincentive,beneficialforcompany’slong-termdevelopment.On26September2022,Yunenglaunchedthestockincentiveplanandgranted850,000shares(accountfor1.03%oftotalsharecapital)to133employees(accountfor57%oftotalheadcount)withsharepriceatRmb354.91.ThestockincentiveplanhasearningtargetsthatYuneng’scumulativerevenueandnetprofitin2022/2022-2023/2022-2024arenolessthanRmb12/30/57bnandRmb2.3/6.2/1.29bn.Theplanwillenhanceemployees’motivationandbeconducivetocompany’slong-termdevelopment.◼EarningsForecast&Rating:WemaintaintheratingofBuyandupgradetheearningforecastwithTPatRmb754givingP/Eratioat50xin2023consideringtherapidgrowthofthemicro-inverterandenergystoragebusinesses.WeexpectthatYuneng’snetprofitwillincreaseby308%/187%/55%YoYtoRmb0.42bn(previousprediction0.45)/Rmb1.21bn(previousprediction1.06)/Rmb1.87bn(previousprediction1.73)in2022/2023/2024respectively.◼Risks:Milder-than-expectedpolicysupport,intensifiedmarketcompetition.PriceMovement