【行业研究报告】三一重能-2022年第三季度点评：风机持续降本，电站转让增厚利润

InvestmentThesis
◼Event:SanyHeavyEnergy(SHE)released2022Q3financialreport.SHE’srevenue
increasedby12.75%YoYtoRmb6.345bnin2022Q1-Q3and35.94%YoYto
increasedby12.75%YoYtoRmb6.345bnin2022Q1-Q3and35.94%YoYto
Rmb2.263bnin2022Q3.SHE’snetprofitdecreasedby4.16%YoYtoRmb1.043bnin
2022Q1-Q3and0.55%YoYtoRmb0.245bnin2022Q3.Thegrossmargindecreasedby
6.87pctYoYto26.14%in2022Q1-Q3and7.30pctYoYto24.53%in2022Q3.Thenet
profitmargindecreasedby2.90pctYoYto16.44%in2022Q1-Q3and4.35pctYoYto
10.85%in2022Q3.Thenetinvestmentincomeincreasedby56.62%YoYto
Rmb0.769bnin2022Q1-Q3and893.33%QoQtoRmb0.149bnin2022Q3.Theasset
devaluationdecreasedby52.63%YoYtoRmb45mnin2022Q1-Q3andincreasedby
39.22%YoYto-Rmb34mn.Overallspeaking,theearningwasbelowthemedianof
analysts’earningforecasts,slightlylowerthanourexpectation.
◼SHEstillhasadvantagesinmanufacturingalthoughthewindturbinespricegoes
down.Windturbineshipmentsincreasedby58.1%YoYto2375MWin2022Q1-Q3and
morethan70%YoYtomorethan900MWin2022Q3.Withtheexecutionoflow-priced
ordersofwindturbines,thegrossprofitmarginoftheindustryissqueezed.However,
SHE’sgrossprofitmarginreachedtomorethan23%in2022Q3duetothecontinuous
costreduction.SHEachievedanetinvestmentincomeofRmb150mnmainlyduetothe
transferofpowerstations.
◼SHE’sshipmentofwindturbinesisverylikelytoincreasebymorethan100%QoQ.
Thecumulativeinstalledcapacityofonshorewindturbineswas19.2GWin2022Q1-Q3
andisverylikelytoreachto45GWforthewhole2022sincetheinstallationin2022Q4
willaccelerate.WeexpectthatSHE’sshipmentofwindturbinesisverylikelytoincrease
bymorethan100%QoQtomorethan2GW.Accordingtoourincompletestatistics,asof
theendofOctober22,themarketbidwinningofonshorewindturbineswereabout
55.3GW(includingbidopening),ofwhichSHEwonthebidfor6.8GW(includingbid
opening)withrankingof4andmarketshareof12.3%(higherthanthemarketshareof
7.7%in2021,onlyincludingonshorewindturbine).Inthecycleoflandwindparity,
costcontrolisthecoreedgeforthewindturbinemanufacturers.SHE’smarketshareis
verylikelytoincreaseduetoitsedgeoncostcontrol.
◼SHE’sexpenseratiodecreasedYoY,butincreasedQoQduetotheincreaseofR&D
expensesin2022Q3.SHE’sexpenseratiodecreasedby0.8pctYoYandincreasedby
0.85pctQoQto20.61%in2022Q3.Theselling/administrative/R&D/financialexpense
ratioincreased+0.1/-0.3/+1.6/-2.2pctYoYrespectivelyin2022Q3.Thedecreasein
financialexpenseswasmainlyduetoasignificantincreaseininterestincome.The
increaseinR&DexpenseswasmainlyduetoincreasedR&Dinvestmentinlarge
megawattwindturbines(919,915andSI18X625projects).
◼EarningsForecast&Rating.WemaintainaBuyratingbecauseSHEisseizingmore
marketsharethankstoitsedgeoncostcontrolinthecycleofwindpowerparity.We
expectSHE’snetprofitriseby4%/41%/30%YoYtoRmb1.654/2.330/3.035bnin
2022/2023/2024respectively,withcorrespondingEPSatRmb1.39/1.96/2.55andP/E
ratioat20/14/11xrespectively.
◼Risks:Intensifiedcompetition,less-than-expecteddemand.
PricePerformance