【行业研究报告】力劲科技-大型压铸机业务保持快速增长，长期成长逻辑不改，“买入”

Duetothelower-than-expectedperformance,welowerTPtoHK$11.90,
butmaintain"Buy"rating.WeforecasttheCompany'sshareholders'net
profitinFY23/FY24/FY25toincreaseYoYby-4.3%,36.4%,and29.8%,
respectively.WeforecastearningspershareinFY23/FY24/FY25tobe
HK$0.437,HK$0.596,andHK$0.773,respectively.OurTPisbasedon
FY24PERof20x.
TheCompany'sshort-termoperationsremainsunderpressure,but
TheCompany'sshort-termoperationsremainsunderpressure,but
unfavorablefactorsarefading.TheCompany's1HFY23injectionmolding
machinebusinessrevenuefell16%YoY,andoperatingprofitmargindropped
to3.8%,whichsignificantlydraggeddowntheCompany'sperformance.
However,withadjustmentsinChina'smacropolicy,theinjectionmolding
machinebusinessandsmalldie-castingmachinebusinesswillimprovein
2HFY23.Inaddition,declineinrawmaterialpriceswillbenefittheCompany’s
grossprofitmargin.
Therevenueshareoflargedie-castingmachineswillincreasegradually,
andtheCompany'slong-termgrowthlogicremainsunchanged.
Accordingtoourcalculationsontheproportionofrevenueandgrossprofit
marginofseveraltypesofdie-castingmachines,webelievethatasdemand
forlargeandsuper-largedie-castingmachinesincreasesinthefuture,the
Company'srevenuewillmaintaindouble-digitgrowthandgrossprofitmargin
willcontinuetoimprove.TheCompany'slong-termgrowthlogicremains
unchanged.
Catalysts:Strongdemandforsuper-largedie-castingmachines;continuous
breakthroughsinthesingle-piecedie-castingtechnology;rapidgrowthinthe
Company’sCNCbusiness.
2023/2024/2025财年的股东净利润分别同比增长-4.3%、36.4%、29.8%，我们预测公司
2023/2024/2025财年每股盈利分别为0.437港元、0.596港元、0.773港元。我们的目标
价基于20倍的2024财年市盈率。
公司短期业绩面临压力，但不利因素逐渐消退。公司2023财年上半年注塑机业务营收同
比下滑16%，经营利润率降至3.8%，显著拖累了公司整体业绩表现。但随着中国宏观政
策调整，注塑机业务和小型压铸机业务在2023下半财年将有所改善。此外，原材料价格
下降也将利好公司毛利率的改善。
大型压铸机的营收占比将逐渐提升，公司长期增长逻辑不变。根据我们对几类压铸机营收
占比和毛利率的计算，我们认为未来随着大型及超大型压铸机的需求持续增加，公司营收
将维持双位数增长，毛利率将持续改善。公司长期增长逻辑不变。
催化剂：超大型压铸机需求强烈；一体压铸技术持续突破；公司CNC业务快速增长。
Rating:Buy
Maintained
6-18mTP目标价:HK$11.90
Revisedfrom原目标价:HK$18.84
Shareprice股价：HK$7.410