【行业研究报告】纽威数控-产品线齐全的数控机床龙头，加速拓展新能源&海外市场

Keywords:#CapacityExpansion
◼AdomesticleaderinCNCmachinetool.Establishedin2007,Newayhasexpanded
rapidlyintothemid-to-high-endCNCmachinetools.Ithasthemostcompleteproduct
arrayamongdomesticCNCplayers,whichincludesmorethan200modelsrangingfrom
large-scalemachiningcenterstoverticalandhorizontalCNCmachinetools.Asthe
large-scalemachiningcenterstoverticalandhorizontalCNCmachinetools.Asthe
downstreamdemandforlarge-scalemachinetoolsusedbythenewenergyandaerospace
industriessurges,theproportionofNeway’shigher-marginlarge-scalemachiningcenters
alsogrew.From2017to2021,itsoverallrevenueandnetprofitgrewatfour-yearCAGR
of28%and68%,respectively.Drivenbyincreasingeconomiesofscaleandproductmix
change,itsnetprofitmargingrewfrom3.3%to14.1%from2017to2022Q1-Q3.
◼Domesticplayersontracktogainmarketshareinthehigh-endsegment:Chinais
hometothegloballargestmachinetoolmarketwithmarketsizeofRMB100bn.While
foreignplayerscommandaleadingpositioninthehigh-endmarket,domesticplayersare
catchingupwithcontinuedmarketsharegainsandincreasinglocalizationrates.Dueto
strategicimportanceofmachinetools,relevantpolicieshavebeenissuedrecently,which
include1)Industry-specificpolicies:①LaunchofthefirstbatchofmachinetoolETFs;
②AdoptionofthefirstChinese-lednationalstandardformachinetoolCNCsystems;2)
Manufacturingsupportpolicies:①Taxreductionsandexemptionsforequipment
purchasebyhigh-techcompaniesin22Q4;②Aspecial-purposerefinancingprogramof
morethanRMB200bnsetupbyThePeople’sBankofChinaforequipmentreplacement.
◼Rampingupcapacityfornewenergyandoverseasbusinesses.1)Penetratingthenew
energyindustry.Manycomponentsinnewenergyvehiclesandwindturbinesrequire
machinetoolprocessing.Thedemandforlarge-scalemachinetoolsisalsoincreasing,
drivenbytheuseofintegrateddie-castingandlarge-scalewindturbines.Witha
comprehensiveproductarrayandspecialtyinlarge-scalemachinetools,Newayhasthe
rightproductmixtopenetrateamongtheseclients.2)Leveragingontheextensive
overseassalesnetworkundertheGroup,Newayhasestablishedacompletesales
networkinmorethan40countries,bringingitsoverseasrevenueto12.4%oftotalrevenue
in2021,vs4-6%foritsdomesticpeers.3)Rampingupproductioncapacityintime.Its
latestproductionlineforthemid-to-high-endCNCmachinetoolcameonlineonJuly28
andisexpectedtoreachfullannualcapacityof2,000unitsin2024,addinganother
RMB1bnrevenueassuming2020averagesalespriceofRMB500,000.
◼EarningsForecast&Rating:WeexpectNewaytodeliverstronggrowthastheoverall
industryoutlookimprove.Weestimateitsnetprofitsin2022-24eatRMB271/354/435mn
respectively,correspondingtoPEof28/22/18x.Weinitiatewithan“Overweight”rating.
◼Risks:Macroeconomicfluctuations;slower-than-expectedproductdevelopment
PricePerformance