【行业研究报告】亿纬锂能-亿纬锂能：拟70亿元扩建44GWh产能，大圆柱产能再加码

Forecast&Valuation2021A2022E2023E2024E
Revenue(RMBmn)16,90036,77572,105108,341
Growth(YoY%)107%118%96%50%
Netprofit(RMBmn)2,9063,8517,00310,038
Growth(YoY%)76%33%82%43%
EPS(RMB)1.421.893.434.92
P/E(X)63.4147.8526.3118.36
InvestmentThesis
Event:EveannouncedthatitintendstoraiseRMB7billionviaconvertiblebondsto
increasecylindricallithiumironphosphatebatteries'capacityof23GWh(RMB4
increasecylindricallithiumironphosphatebatteries'capacityof23GWh(RMB4
billion)and46-serieslargecylindricalpowerbatteries'capacity(forpassengervehicles)
of21GWh(RMB3billion).
Evelaysoutmoreonthecapacityoflargecylindricalbatteries,drivingwithboth
powerbatteriesandenergystoragebatteries.ThenewlyaddedcapacityofEve's21
GWhlargecylindricalbatteriesisexpectedtobeputintoproductionbytheendof2023.
Consideringtheexistingplanningcapacityof21GWhandHungary'splanningcapacity
of20GWh,Eve'splanningcapacityoflargecylinderbatteriesisover60GWh,ofwhich
the7GWhisexpectedtobeputintoproductionbytheendof2022andcontributeto
incrementalvolumein2023H2.Inaddition,thecompanyhasaddeda23GWhcapacity
oflithiumironphosphatecylindricalbatteries,acceleratingthelayoutofenergystorage
again.Eve'scurrentplanningproductioncapacityisover400GWhandweexpectits
capacitytobreak100GWhbytheendof2022,and200GWhbytheendof2023.The
acceleratedlandingofcapacitysupportsthelaterdoublingofshipments.
Eve'sbatteryshipmentsareexpectedtodoublein2023,andtheintegratedlayout
willdrivebothincreasesinamountandprofit.Weexpectthecompanytoshiparound
30GWhin2022(9GWhofternarylithiumbatteriesand20GWhoflithiumiron
batteries,including10GWhofenergystoragebatteries)andwilldoubleto60GWh+in
2023.Weexpectits2023energystoragebatteryshipmentstoreach30GWhandincrease
energystorage’sproportionto50%.Intermsofearnings,Eve'sintegratedproduction
capacityisgraduallyputintoproduction.Weexpectitsshipmentsofupstreamlithium
carbonatestoreacharound12,000tonnesin2023andcontributetooverRMB1billion,
whilemidstreamlithiumironphosphate,diaphragm,andelectrolytecapacitieswillstart
tocontributetoprofits.Withthenewcapacityputintoproduction,thecompany's
profitabilityinthebatterysegmentisexpectedtodoublein2023.
EarningsForecast&Rating:Thecompanyhasacomprehensivelayoutofpower
batteriesandacleargrowthpathforitsdiversifiedbusinesses.Wemaintainits
2022-2024netprofitofRMB3.85/7.0/10.04billion,withaYoYgrowthof
33%/82%/43%,correspondingtoPEof48x/26x/18x.ConsideringEve'supgradeof
productstructureandtechnology,andafurtherincreaseinproductioncapacity,wegivea
PEof40xandatargetpriceofRMB137.2in2023,maintaininga"buy"rating.
Risks:Lower-than-expectedsales.
PricePerformance