【行业研究报告】天顺风能-收购江苏长风，全面进军海风市场

InvestmentThesis
◼Event:On6December2022,TitanWindEnergy(TWE)announcedthatitintendsto
acquire100%equityofJiangsuStrongWindMarineEquipmentco.ltd(JSW)with
self-financingandowncashofRmb3bn.Iftheacquisitionsucceeds,JiangsuStrong
Windwillbecomeawholly-ownedsubsidiaryofTWEandbeincludedintheTWE’s
Windwillbecomeawholly-ownedsubsidiaryofTWEandbeincludedintheTWE’s
consolidatedstatements.
◼Theacquisitioninvolvestwooffshorewindpowerequipment(monopilesand
catheterostat)plantsofJSWinSheyangandNantongwithatotalproduction
capacityof400,000-500,000tons,andisexpectedtobecompletedinearly2023.
TWEhasalreadyacquiredJSW’splantinShanweiinNovember2022.Attheendof
2023,TWE'sproductioncapacityofoffshorewindpowerequipment(monopilesand
catheterostat)willbearound1.2milliontons:1)TheSheyangplanthasmonopile
productioncapacityof200,000-300,000tonsandlocatesnexttotheTWE’splanned
plant,whichwillstarttobeconstructedwithplannedcapacityof200,000-300,000tons
aftertheacquisitionsucceeds.TWEexpectedthatthenewplannedplantwouldgointo
operationinlate2023,withtotalproductioncapacityinSheyangbasereaching600,000
tons;2)TheNantongplanthasaproductioncapacityof200,000tonsofcatheterostat
andboosterstationwithself-ownedport,mainlytargetingatthemarketsofJiangsu,
JapanandKorea;3)TheShanweiplantphaseonehasbeenputintooperationwith
catheterostatcapacityof200,000tonsandphasetwowillbeputintooperationin
2023H1,withtotalcatheterostatcapcityreachingto400,000-500,000tonsafter2023H1.
◼TWE’sdomesticoffshorewindmonopilesandcatheterostatcapacitycontinuesto
increase,aimingtotake50%ofthemarketshare.Besidesthethreeplantswithtotal
capacity(plannedandexisting)of1,200,000tonsintheendof2023mentionedabove,
TWEwillcontinuetobuildproductioncapacityofoffshorewindpowermonopilesand
catheterostatinYangjiang,BeibuGulfandFujianin2024-2025toformatotalcapacity
of2,000,000tonsandtake50%ofthemarketshare.
◼TWE’sGermanplantwillbeputintooperationin2023withproductioncapacityof
offshorewindpilefoundationof300,000-500,000tonsandcontributerevenuein
2024.In2019,TWEacquiredtheAmbau’sproductioncenteratCuxhaven,Germany,
whichprovidesoffshorewindpilefoundationfortheoverseaswindturbines
manufacturerssuchasVestas,SiemensGamesa,GEandNordex.Theplanthas
geographicaledgebecauseitlocatesneartotheNorthSeawherehastherichestoffshore
windresourceinEurope.TWE’snewGermanplantwillbeputintooperationin2023
withproductioncapacityofoffshorewindpilefoundationof300,000-500,000tonsand
contributerevenuein2024becausetheproductswillspendahalfyeartopasscustomers’
productionverificationtest.
◼EarningsForecast&Rating:WemaintainBuyrating,consideringTWE’srapid
growthofoverseasanddomesticcapacityofwindpowerequipment.WeexpectTWE’s
netprofittobeRmb0.65/1.79/2.35bn.(Rmb1.09/1.94/2.45bn.inpreviousforecast)in
2022/2023/2024respectively,withcorrespondingP/Eat42x/15x/12xrespectively.
◼Risks:Lower-than-expectedcapacityincrease,fluctuationinrawmaterialprices,
intensifiedcompetition.
PriceMovement
-54%